CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Consumer Cyclical - Restaurants Investor Relations →
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) closed at $63.25 as of 2026-02-02, trading 61.1% above its 200-week moving average of $39.27. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 48.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, CAKE is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1694 weeks of data, CAKE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CAKE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.6%.
With a market cap of $3.2 billion, CAKE is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.1%. Return on equity stands at 39.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.4x book value.
Over the past 32.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CAKE would have grown to $2090, compared to $2657 for the S&P 500. CAKE has returned 9.8% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: CAKE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CAKE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying CAKE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.6% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +17.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +37.8% vs +39.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CAKE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
CAKE has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +19.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1993 | Sep 1993 | 3 | 3.5% | -6.1% | +2224.6% |
| Mar 1994 | Oct 1994 | 29 | 19.7% | +2.7% | +2140.9% |
| Nov 1994 | Feb 1995 | 16 | 20.4% | +26.0% | +2171.6% |
| Mar 1995 | Mar 1995 | 2 | 7.7% | +54.9% | +2235.6% |
| Oct 1995 | Oct 1995 | 1 | 0.1% | -0.6% | +2039.7% |
| Oct 1996 | Jan 1997 | 14 | 14.7% | +22.6% | +1922.2% |
| Feb 1997 | Feb 1997 | 1 | 0.7% | +54.5% | +1885.9% |
| Mar 1997 | Jun 1997 | 14 | 14.0% | +52.7% | +1885.9% |
| Jul 1997 | Jul 1997 | 1 | 0.3% | +54.0% | +1862.4% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 4 | 11.8% | +85.9% | +1587.8% |
| Jun 2006 | Dec 2009 | 183 | 79.7% | -3.8% | +196.8% |
| Jul 2017 | Jan 2018 | 26 | 20.6% | +27.4% | +59.7% |
| Feb 2018 | Apr 2018 | 8 | 8.0% | +4.8% | +66.5% |
| Jul 2018 | Aug 2018 | 2 | 1.1% | -12.4% | +49.5% |
| Oct 2018 | Apr 2019 | 27 | 14.4% | -19.9% | +48.8% |
| May 2019 | Jan 2021 | 88 | 66.0% | -51.3% | +52.4% |
| Oct 2021 | Nov 2021 | 1 | 3.6% | -9.4% | +72.8% |
| Nov 2021 | Feb 2022 | 13 | 16.5% | -10.5% | +69.2% |
| Feb 2022 | Jan 2023 | 45 | 31.5% | +5.1% | +91.8% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 19 | 14.5% | +9.4% | +96.8% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 19 | 18.3% | +6.4% | +94.7% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 9 | 6.9% | +52.2% | +98.6% |
| Mar 2024 | May 2024 | 7 | 6.0% | +44.1% | +89.9% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 2 | 3.6% | +81.9% | +86.4% |
| Average | 22 | — | +19.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02