BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) closed at $18.09 as of 2026-06-19, trading 9.8% above its 200-week moving average of $16.48. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 11.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.74 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2324 weeks of data, BXMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BXMT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.3%.
With a market cap of $3.1 billion, BXMT is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 2.9%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BXMT would have grown to $417, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. BXMT has returned 4.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -11.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BXMT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BXMT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 29 historical episodes, buying BXMT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.1% after 12 months (median -4.0%), compared to +7.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 41% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.2% vs +28.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BXMT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BXMT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BXMT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $17.37 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $17.94 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $18.56 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $19.22 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $19.93 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BXMT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BXMT has crossed below its 200-week MA 38 times with an average 1-year return of +8.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1982 | Apr 1982 | 11 | 12.4% | +26.5% | +77.6% |
| Jun 1982 | Jun 1982 | 1 | 0.8% | +34.3% | +80.3% |
| Jul 1982 | Jul 1982 | 1 | 0.8% | +25.4% | +80.3% |
| Aug 1982 | Sep 1982 | 2 | 1.0% | +19.4% | +80.3% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 1 | 1.0% | +19.4% | +80.3% |
| May 1986 | Jul 1986 | 6 | 9.5% | -41.0% | +34.2% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 3 | 4.6% | -40.6% | +37.2% |
| Sep 1986 | Oct 1986 | 5 | 4.0% | -42.0% | +31.3% |
| Dec 1986 | Feb 1993 | 321 | 55.6% | -58.2% | +29.9% |
| Dec 1993 | Dec 1993 | 1 | 0.2% | -16.1% | +277.7% |
| Jan 1994 | Jan 1994 | 1 | 0.7% | -9.6% | +277.7% |
| Mar 1994 | Apr 1994 | 1 | 1.7% | -16.1% | +277.7% |
| Apr 1994 | May 1994 | 5 | 1.4% | -16.5% | +275.7% |
| Jun 1994 | Jun 1996 | 106 | 32.7% | -10.1% | +275.7% |
| Jul 1996 | Jul 1996 | 1 | 3.2% | +242.9% | +311.5% |
| Feb 1999 | Apr 1999 | 9 | 23.5% | -22.5% | +44.0% |
| May 1999 | Jun 2001 | 110 | 44.8% | -35.7% | +37.2% |
| Jul 2001 | Jul 2001 | 3 | 4.8% | -15.5% | +20.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Dec 2001 | 15 | 13.6% | -12.0% | +33.4% |
| Mar 2002 | May 2002 | 8 | 6.2% | +16.0% | +44.0% |
| Jul 2002 | Oct 2002 | 14 | 3.5% | +44.1% | +50.0% |
| Nov 2002 | Dec 2002 | 7 | 8.9% | +84.7% | +60.0% |
| Jan 2003 | Feb 2003 | 2 | 5.8% | +86.6% | +54.2% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 3.5% | -84.8% | -48.5% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 2 | 7.1% | -86.5% | -47.5% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 7 | 10.5% | -89.4% | -50.4% |
| May 2008 | May 2008 | 2 | 6.2% | -92.1% | -49.6% |
| Jun 2008 | Mar 2012 | 199 | 95.8% | -93.5% | -52.5% |
| Apr 2012 | May 2012 | 5 | 15.1% | +61.9% | +266.8% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 1 | 1.0% | +98.6% | +359.5% |
| Dec 2012 | Dec 2012 | 1 | 23.9% | +230.3% | +569.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 47.1% | +94.5% | +90.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Sep 2023 | 49 | 31.1% | +4.9% | +17.4% |
| Sep 2023 | Nov 2023 | 8 | 11.4% | +0.1% | +8.6% |
| Dec 2023 | Dec 2023 | 1 | 3.0% | -0.4% | +11.6% |
| Dec 2023 | Jan 2024 | 1 | 2.3% | -5.2% | +11.2% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2025 | 56 | 17.6% | +0.7% | +11.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 6.1% | +12.2% | +11.4% |
| Average | 26 | — | +8.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BXMT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is currently 9.8% above its 200-week moving average of $16.48. It would need to fall to $16.48 to cross below the line.
What is BXMT's 200-week moving average price?
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $16.48 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BXMT drops below its 200-week moving average?
BXMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is BXMT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BXMT as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 50. Return on equity is 2.9%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BXMT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in BXMT would have grown to $417, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 4.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. BXMT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BXMT pay a dividend?
Yes. Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1025.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19