BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) closed at $14.54 as of 2026-07-31, trading 9.3% below its 200-week moving average of $16.03. This places BXMT in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 4.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 12, BXMT is in oversold territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.5x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2330 weeks of data, BXMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BXMT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.6%.
With a market cap of $2.5 billion, BXMT is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 2.9%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BXMT would have grown to $344, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. BXMT has returned 3.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -11.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BXMT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BXMT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying BXMT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.5% after 12 months (median -6.0%), compared to +6.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 41% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.8% vs +27.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BXMT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BXMT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BXMT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $16.87 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $17.42 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $18.02 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $18.66 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $19.35 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BXMT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BXMT has crossed below its 200-week MA 37 times with an average 1-year return of +2.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1982 | Apr 1982 | 11 | 12.4% | +26.5% | +46.7% |
| Jun 1982 | Jun 1982 | 1 | 0.8% | +34.3% | +48.9% |
| Jul 1982 | Jul 1982 | 1 | 0.8% | +25.4% | +48.9% |
| Aug 1982 | Sep 1982 | 2 | 1.0% | +19.4% | +48.9% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 1 | 1.0% | +19.4% | +48.9% |
| May 1986 | Jul 1986 | 6 | 9.5% | -41.0% | +10.8% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 3 | 4.6% | -40.6% | +13.4% |
| Sep 1986 | Oct 1986 | 5 | 4.0% | -40.4% | +8.4% |
| Dec 1986 | Feb 1993 | 321 | 55.6% | -58.2% | +7.3% |
| Dec 1993 | Dec 1993 | 1 | 0.4% | -16.1% | +212.0% |
| Jan 1994 | Jan 1994 | 1 | 0.9% | -9.6% | +212.0% |
| Mar 1994 | Apr 1994 | 1 | 1.8% | -16.1% | +212.0% |
| Apr 1994 | May 1994 | 5 | 1.6% | -16.5% | +210.4% |
| Jun 1994 | Jun 1996 | 106 | 32.7% | -10.1% | +210.4% |
| Jul 1996 | Jul 1996 | 1 | 3.3% | +242.9% | +239.9% |
| Feb 1999 | Apr 1999 | 9 | 23.5% | -22.5% | +19.0% |
| May 1999 | Jun 2001 | 110 | 44.8% | -35.7% | +13.3% |
| Jul 2001 | Jul 2001 | 3 | 4.8% | -15.5% | -0.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Dec 2001 | 15 | 13.6% | -12.0% | +10.2% |
| Mar 2002 | May 2002 | 8 | 6.2% | +19.0% | +19.0% |
| Jul 2002 | Oct 2002 | 14 | 3.5% | +44.1% | +23.9% |
| Nov 2002 | Dec 2002 | 7 | 8.9% | +84.7% | +32.2% |
| Jan 2003 | Feb 2003 | 2 | 5.8% | +86.6% | +27.4% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 3.6% | -84.8% | -57.5% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 2 | 7.2% | -86.5% | -56.6% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 7 | 10.7% | -89.4% | -59.1% |
| May 2008 | May 2008 | 2 | 6.3% | -92.1% | -58.3% |
| Jun 2008 | Mar 2012 | 199 | 95.8% | -93.5% | -60.8% |
| Apr 2012 | May 2012 | 5 | 15.2% | +61.9% | +203.0% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 1 | 1.1% | +98.6% | +279.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 45.5% | +94.5% | +56.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Sep 2023 | 49 | 31.2% | +5.4% | -5.4% |
| Sep 2023 | Nov 2023 | 8 | 11.6% | +0.1% | -10.3% |
| Dec 2023 | Dec 2023 | 1 | 3.2% | -0.4% | -7.8% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2025 | 56 | 17.7% | +0.7% | -7.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 6.3% | +12.3% | -10.2% |
| Jul 2026 | Ongoing | 1+ | 9.3% | Ongoing | N/A |
| Average | 27 | — | +2.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BXMT below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is trading 9.3% below its 200-week moving average of $16.03. The current price is $14.54.
What is BXMT's 200-week moving average price?
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $16.03 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BXMT drops below its 200-week moving average?
BXMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is BXMT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BXMT as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 12 (oversold). Return on equity is 2.9%. Price-to-book is 0.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BXMT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in BXMT would have grown to $344, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 3.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. BXMT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BXMT pay a dividend?
Yes. Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1146.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31