BWFG
Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. (BWFG) closed at $66.76 as of 2026-09-18, trading 97.0% above its 200-week moving average of $33.88. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 103.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 73, BWFG is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 810 weeks of data, BWFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BWFG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.6%.
With a market cap of $532 million, BWFG is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 14.1%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Share count has increased 2.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 15.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BWFG would have grown to $597, compared to $754 for the S&P 500. BWFG has returned 12.1% annualized vs 13.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -29.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BWFG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BWFG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying BWFG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.1% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +19.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +58.9% vs +42.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BWFG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BWFG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BWFG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $58.02 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $61.07 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $64.46 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $68.24 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $72.50 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $1.29 | $1.52 | +18.1% |
| 2026-04-22 | $1.22 | $1.41 | +15.3% |
| 2026-01-29 | $1.19 | $1.15 | -3.1% |
| 2025-10-23 | $1.06 | $1.27 | +19.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BWFG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BWFG has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +15.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2011 | Feb 2012 | 48 | 16.2% | -0.4% | +497.0% |
| Mar 2012 | Apr 2012 | 6 | 3.3% | +57.1% | +499.2% |
| May 2012 | Feb 2013 | 39 | 13.5% | +76.0% | +571.1% |
| Jun 2014 | Jun 2014 | 1 | 0.9% | +11.8% | +422.3% |
| Jul 2019 | Oct 2019 | 15 | 9.8% | -41.2% | +190.8% |
| Dec 2019 | Feb 2020 | 7 | 6.3% | -33.1% | +178.7% |
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2021 | 53 | 55.7% | -9.9% | +177.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 17 | 11.4% | +4.4% | +186.9% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 6 | 5.0% | +24.7% | +191.6% |
| Feb 2024 | Mar 2024 | 2 | 0.9% | +26.3% | +182.9% |
| Apr 2024 | Jul 2024 | 16 | 8.3% | +14.3% | +180.0% |
| Aug 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 1.0% | +57.3% | +168.9% |
| Average | 18 | — | +15.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BWFG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. (BWFG) is currently 97.0% above its 200-week moving average of $33.88. It would need to fall to $33.88 to cross below the line.
What is BWFG's 200-week moving average price?
Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $33.88 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BWFG drops below its 200-week moving average?
BWFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is BWFG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BWFG as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 73 (overbought). Return on equity is 14.1%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BWFG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 15.6 years, $100 invested in BWFG would have grown to $597, compared to $754 for the S&P 500. That's 12.1% annualized vs 13.8% for the index. BWFG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BWFG pay a dividend?
Yes. Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 120.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18