BWA
BorgWarner Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Auto Parts Investor Relations →
BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) closed at $71.84 as of 2026-06-19, trading 89.1% above its 200-week moving average of $37.99. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 97.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 86, BWA is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.39 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1666 weeks of data, BWA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BWA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.5%.
With a market cap of $14.7 billion, BWA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.9%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 7.3%. The stock trades at 2.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 32 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BWA would have grown to $3316, compared to $2856 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.6% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming BWA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 29.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BWA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BWA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying BWA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.1% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +12.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 63% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +37.9% vs +28.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BWA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BWA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BWA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $50.46 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $54.94 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $60.29 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $66.80 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $74.87 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BWA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BWA has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +14.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1994 | Apr 1995 | 35 | 13.7% | +22.1% | +3580.8% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 12.9% | +21.6% | +2440.0% |
| Sep 1999 | Feb 2001 | 76 | 32.0% | -25.7% | +1894.8% |
| Mar 2001 | May 2001 | 9 | 10.8% | +52.6% | +1940.8% |
| Jun 2001 | Jun 2001 | 1 | 0.1% | +32.0% | +1831.2% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 7 | 17.1% | +49.1% | +2235.8% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 0.2% | +71.9% | +1766.0% |
| Oct 2002 | Nov 2002 | 1 | 0.2% | +78.3% | +1768.0% |
| Mar 2003 | Mar 2003 | 1 | 0.1% | +93.7% | +1751.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Jun 2009 | 36 | 55.0% | -6.6% | +510.8% |
| Jun 2009 | Jan 2010 | 29 | 18.3% | +26.8% | +501.8% |
| Aug 2015 | Jul 2017 | 102 | 38.9% | -26.1% | +107.6% |
| Aug 2017 | Sep 2017 | 5 | 5.1% | -0.3% | +109.5% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 4 | 3.5% | -1.1% | +113.9% |
| Aug 2018 | Aug 2018 | 1 | 1.2% | -21.7% | +110.1% |
| Aug 2018 | Sep 2018 | 2 | 1.2% | -24.2% | +111.0% |
| Sep 2018 | Apr 2019 | 27 | 21.2% | -13.4% | +115.0% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 5 | 13.1% | -22.1% | +137.0% |
| Jul 2019 | Oct 2019 | 16 | 23.6% | -9.4% | +127.1% |
| Jan 2020 | Aug 2020 | 29 | 49.1% | +11.2% | +129.3% |
| Sep 2020 | Jan 2021 | 18 | 13.1% | +11.8% | +127.2% |
| Feb 2022 | May 2022 | 12 | 8.0% | +39.9% | +135.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Aug 2022 | 9 | 13.5% | +24.2% | +129.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 11 | 18.6% | +21.2% | +127.1% |
| Oct 2023 | Dec 2023 | 7 | 8.9% | +1.6% | +123.4% |
| Jan 2024 | Apr 2024 | 17 | 15.8% | -8.7% | +112.3% |
| May 2024 | Jun 2025 | 58 | 26.4% | -7.2% | +107.4% |
| Average | 19 | — | +14.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BWA below its 200-week moving average?
No. BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) is currently 89.1% above its 200-week moving average of $37.99. It would need to fall to $37.99 to cross below the line.
What is BWA's 200-week moving average price?
BorgWarner Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $37.99 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BWA drops below its 200-week moving average?
BWA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is BWA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BWA as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 86 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 6.9%. Return on equity is 7.3%. Price-to-book is 2.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BWA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32 years, $100 invested in BWA would have grown to $3316, compared to $2856 for the S&P 500. That's 11.6% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. BWA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BWA pay a dividend?
Yes. BorgWarner Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 94.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19