BUSE
First Busey Corporation Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
First Busey Corporation (BUSE) closed at $30.32 as of 2026-09-18, trading 36.6% above its 200-week moving average of $22.19. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 37.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.0x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1410 weeks of data, BUSE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -4.1%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $2.5 billion, BUSE is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 9.6%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 58.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 27.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BUSE would have grown to $166, compared to $949 for the S&P 500. BUSE has returned 1.9% annualized vs 8.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 2.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BUSE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BUSE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying BUSE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -4.7% after 12 months (median -4.0%), compared to +2.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 48% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +2.2% vs +19.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BUSE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BUSE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BUSE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.40 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $29.80 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $31.35 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $33.07 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $34.99 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $0.64 | $0.69 | +7.1% |
| 2026-04-28 | $0.58 | $0.67 | +15.5% |
| 2026-01-27 | $0.62 | $0.68 | +9.2% |
| 2025-10-28 | $0.62 | $0.64 | +2.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BUSE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BUSE has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +-4.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1999 | Sep 1999 | 1 | 0.1% | -6.4% | +94.5% |
| Feb 2000 | Jan 2001 | 48 | 18.0% | -4.9% | +87.7% |
| Jan 2001 | Mar 2001 | 7 | 6.4% | +7.9% | +92.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 1.4% | +21.1% | +91.9% |
| Oct 2001 | Oct 2001 | 1 | 1.5% | +21.5% | +92.2% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 1 | 0.4% | +23.6% | +90.0% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 6.0% | +3.4% | +10.8% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 5 | 6.1% | -58.3% | +6.5% |
| May 2008 | Sep 2008 | 19 | 38.8% | -53.0% | +4.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Feb 2013 | 230 | 80.0% | -74.0% | +5.2% |
| Apr 2013 | May 2013 | 5 | 3.6% | +36.7% | +279.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 3.4% | +20.0% | +73.1% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 3 | 5.8% | -38.1% | +73.5% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 2 | 2.5% | -24.7% | +64.8% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 5 | 6.7% | -25.6% | +58.5% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 4 | 4.1% | -35.7% | +58.8% |
| Jan 2020 | Mar 2021 | 57 | 46.0% | -14.9% | +55.8% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 2 | 2.8% | +3.9% | +58.2% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 2 | 1.7% | +5.2% | +62.0% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 2.5% | -15.7% | +61.1% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 0.9% | -1.4% | +62.3% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.6% | -8.7% | +63.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 18 | 20.2% | +15.2% | +69.7% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 13 | 9.7% | +29.9% | +65.9% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 1.4% | +14.8% | +48.9% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 7 | 12.8% | +16.1% | +46.4% |
| May 2025 | May 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | +30.6% | +47.5% |
| Average | 16 | — | +-4.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BUSE below its 200-week moving average?
No. First Busey Corporation (BUSE) is currently 36.6% above its 200-week moving average of $22.19. It would need to fall to $22.19 to cross below the line.
What is BUSE's 200-week moving average price?
First Busey Corporation's 200-week moving average is $22.19 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BUSE drops below its 200-week moving average?
BUSE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -4.1%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is BUSE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BUSE as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 63. Return on equity is 9.6%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BUSE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.1 years, $100 invested in BUSE would have grown to $166, compared to $949 for the S&P 500. That's 1.9% annualized vs 8.7% for the index. BUSE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BUSE pay a dividend?
Yes. First Busey Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 345.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18