BUSE
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First Busey Corporation (BUSE) closed at $30.86 as of 2026-07-31, trading 41.1% above its 200-week moving average of $21.87. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 36.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 78, BUSE is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.20 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1403 weeks of data, BUSE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -4.1%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $2.6 billion, BUSE is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 9.6%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 58.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 26.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BUSE would have grown to $169, compared to $928 for the S&P 500. BUSE has returned 2.0% annualized vs 8.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 2.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BUSE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BUSE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying BUSE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -4.7% after 12 months (median -4.0%), compared to +2.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 48% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +2.2% vs +19.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BUSE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BUSE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BUSE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $25.02 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $26.00 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $27.06 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $28.21 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $29.45 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BUSE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BUSE has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +-4.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1999 | Sep 1999 | 1 | 0.1% | -6.4% | +98.0% |
| Feb 2000 | Jan 2001 | 48 | 18.0% | -4.9% | +91.1% |
| Jan 2001 | Mar 2001 | 7 | 6.4% | +7.9% | +96.3% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 1.4% | +21.1% | +95.3% |
| Oct 2001 | Oct 2001 | 1 | 1.5% | +21.5% | +95.6% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 1 | 0.4% | +23.6% | +93.4% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 6.0% | +3.4% | +12.8% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 5 | 6.1% | -58.3% | +8.4% |
| May 2008 | Sep 2008 | 19 | 38.8% | -53.0% | +6.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Feb 2013 | 230 | 80.0% | -74.0% | +7.0% |
| Apr 2013 | May 2013 | 5 | 3.6% | +36.7% | +286.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 3.4% | +20.0% | +76.2% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 3 | 5.8% | -38.1% | +76.6% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 2 | 2.5% | -24.7% | +67.8% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 5 | 6.7% | -25.6% | +61.3% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 4 | 4.1% | -35.7% | +61.6% |
| Jan 2020 | Mar 2021 | 57 | 46.0% | -14.9% | +58.6% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 2 | 2.8% | +3.9% | +61.1% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 2 | 1.7% | +5.2% | +64.8% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 2.5% | -15.7% | +64.0% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 0.9% | -1.4% | +65.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.6% | -8.7% | +66.1% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 18 | 20.2% | +15.2% | +72.7% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 13 | 9.7% | +29.9% | +68.9% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 1.4% | +14.8% | +51.5% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 7 | 12.8% | +16.1% | +49.0% |
| May 2025 | May 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | +30.6% | +50.1% |
| Average | 16 | — | +-4.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BUSE below its 200-week moving average?
No. First Busey Corporation (BUSE) is currently 41.1% above its 200-week moving average of $21.87. It would need to fall to $21.87 to cross below the line.
What is BUSE's 200-week moving average price?
First Busey Corporation's 200-week moving average is $21.87 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BUSE drops below its 200-week moving average?
BUSE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -4.1%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is BUSE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BUSE as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 78 (overbought). Return on equity is 9.6%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BUSE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.9 years, $100 invested in BUSE would have grown to $169, compared to $928 for the S&P 500. That's 2.0% annualized vs 8.6% for the index. BUSE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BUSE pay a dividend?
Yes. First Busey Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 337.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31