BTU
Peabody Energy Corporation Energy - Thermal Coal Investor Relations →
Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) closed at $21.32 as of 2026-07-31, trading 8.0% below its 200-week moving average of $23.17. This places BTU in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -1.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 35, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.12 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 438 weeks of data, BTU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 42 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -37.2%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
Return on equity stands at -4.8%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 8.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BTU would have grown to $67, compared to $322 for the S&P 500. BTU has returned -4.6% annualized vs 14.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BTU vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BTU Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying BTU when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -40.0% after 12 months (median -66.0%), compared to +14.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 25% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -92.0% vs +34.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BTU crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. BTU currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BTU's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BTU has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +-37.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 0.2% | -67.6% | -29.4% |
| Nov 2018 | Jan 2019 | 8 | 12.9% | -66.9% | -22.0% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2022 | 157 | 95.2% | -68.8% | -18.1% |
| Dec 2024 | Sep 2025 | 38 | 49.9% | +54.7% | +9.2% |
| Jun 2026 | Ongoing | 5+ | 8.0% | Ongoing | -4.4% |
| Average | 42 | — | +-37.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BTU below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) is trading 8.0% below its 200-week moving average of $23.17. The current price is $21.32.
What is BTU's 200-week moving average price?
Peabody Energy Corporation's 200-week moving average is $23.17 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BTU drops below its 200-week moving average?
BTU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -37.2%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 42 weeks on average.
Is BTU a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BTU as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 35. Return on equity is -4.8%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BTU compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8.4 years, $100 invested in BTU would have grown to $67, compared to $322 for the S&P 500. That's -4.6% annualized vs 14.9% for the index. BTU has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BTU pay a dividend?
Yes. Peabody Energy Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 140.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31