BTI
British American Tobacco p.l.c. Consumer Staples - Tobacco Investor Relations →
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) closed at $55.83 as of 2026-09-18, trading 46.0% above its 200-week moving average of $38.24. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 45.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 36, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2374 weeks of data, BTI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BTI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.8%.
With a market cap of $120.2 billion, BTI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.9%. Return on equity stands at 13.4%. The stock trades at 9.7x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BTI would have grown to $5008, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming BTI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -16.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BTI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BTI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying BTI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.4% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +11.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 82% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.5% vs +17.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BTI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BTI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BTI has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +18.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1981 | May 1981 | 7 | 2.5% | +29.2% | +59233.6% |
| Dec 1981 | Dec 1981 | 2 | 2.4% | +58.0% | +56860.3% |
| Jun 1994 | Jul 1994 | 3 | 6.5% | +48.5% | +5840.8% |
| Sep 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 0.0% | +9.8% | +3340.4% |
| Sep 1999 | Sep 1999 | 1 | 0.1% | -15.1% | +3034.0% |
| Oct 1999 | Oct 2000 | 55 | 47.1% | -0.6% | +3259.8% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2000 | 2 | 0.6% | +22.0% | +3058.2% |
| Jan 2001 | Jan 2001 | 2 | 1.4% | +29.3% | +3072.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 3 | 11.2% | +30.6% | +513.8% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 7 | 10.6% | +40.7% | +520.6% |
| Jan 2009 | Jun 2009 | 21 | 18.0% | +33.5% | +490.3% |
| Mar 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 1.5% | -21.0% | +88.2% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2021 | 155 | 41.7% | -17.9% | +99.4% |
| Apr 2021 | May 2021 | 2 | 2.2% | +21.5% | +117.8% |
| Sep 2021 | Oct 2021 | 2 | 2.0% | +9.9% | +129.5% |
| Oct 2021 | Dec 2021 | 6 | 1.9% | +23.0% | +129.0% |
| May 2023 | Jul 2023 | 8 | 3.7% | +4.4% | +115.2% |
| Jul 2023 | Sep 2023 | 6 | 2.7% | +22.9% | +114.5% |
| Sep 2023 | Jun 2024 | 38 | 10.8% | +28.6% | +117.6% |
| Average | 17 | — | +18.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BTI below its 200-week moving average?
No. British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) is currently 46.0% above its 200-week moving average of $38.24. It would need to fall to $38.24 to cross below the line.
What is BTI's 200-week moving average price?
British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s 200-week moving average is $38.24 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BTI drops below its 200-week moving average?
BTI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is BTI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BTI as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 36. Free cash flow yield is 2.9%. Return on equity is 13.4%. Price-to-book is 9.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BTI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in BTI would have grown to $5008, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 12.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. BTI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BTI pay a dividend?
Yes. British American Tobacco p.l.c. currently pays a dividend yield of 596.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18