BTI
British American Tobacco p.l.c. Consumer Staples - Tobacco Investor Relations →
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) closed at $58.91 as of 2026-06-19, trading 60.3% above its 200-week moving average of $36.75. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 70.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2361 weeks of data, BTI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BTI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.3%.
With a market cap of $127.3 billion, BTI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.4%. Return on equity stands at 15.8%, a solid level. The stock trades at 10.4x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BTI would have grown to $5212, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming BTI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -16.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BTI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BTI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying BTI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.5% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +10.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +37.1% vs +15.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BTI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BTI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BTI has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +19.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1981 | May 1981 | 7 | 2.5% | +29.2% | +61648.1% |
| Dec 1981 | Dec 1981 | 2 | 2.4% | +58.0% | +59178.2% |
| Jun 1994 | Jul 1994 | 3 | 6.5% | +48.5% | +6082.6% |
| Sep 1999 | Sep 1999 | 1 | 0.0% | -15.1% | +3161.6% |
| Oct 1999 | Oct 2000 | 55 | 47.1% | -0.6% | +3396.5% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2000 | 2 | 0.5% | +22.0% | +3186.7% |
| Jan 2001 | Jan 2001 | 2 | 1.3% | +29.3% | +3201.2% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 3 | 11.1% | +30.6% | +538.8% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 7 | 10.5% | +40.7% | +545.8% |
| Jan 2009 | Jun 2009 | 21 | 18.0% | +33.5% | +514.3% |
| Mar 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 2.6% | -21.3% | +98.4% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2021 | 155 | 41.7% | -17.9% | +107.5% |
| Apr 2021 | May 2021 | 2 | 2.1% | +21.5% | +126.7% |
| Sep 2021 | Oct 2021 | 2 | 3.8% | +9.9% | +143.7% |
| Oct 2021 | Dec 2021 | 6 | 1.8% | +23.0% | +138.3% |
| May 2023 | Jul 2023 | 9 | 3.6% | +4.4% | +124.0% |
| Jul 2023 | Sep 2023 | 6 | 2.5% | +22.9% | +123.2% |
| Sep 2023 | Jul 2024 | 40 | 10.6% | +28.9% | +131.5% |
| Average | 18 | — | +19.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BTI below its 200-week moving average?
No. British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) is currently 60.3% above its 200-week moving average of $36.75. It would need to fall to $36.75 to cross below the line.
What is BTI's 200-week moving average price?
British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s 200-week moving average is $36.75 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BTI drops below its 200-week moving average?
BTI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is BTI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BTI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 50. Free cash flow yield is 2.4%. Return on equity is 15.8%. Price-to-book is 10.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BTI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in BTI would have grown to $5212, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 12.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. BTI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BTI pay a dividend?
Yes. British American Tobacco p.l.c. currently pays a dividend yield of 544.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19