BTG
B2Gold Corp. Basic Materials - Gold Investor Relations →
B2Gold Corp. (BTG) closed at $5.49 as of 2026-09-18, trading 60.2% above its 200-week moving average of $3.43. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 57.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.12 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 903 weeks of data, BTG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BTG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.0%.
With a market cap of $7.3 billion, BTG is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.1%. Return on equity stands at 22.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
Share count has increased 24.7% over three years, indicating dilution. BTG passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 17.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BTG would have grown to $1054, compared to $1124 for the S&P 500. BTG has returned 14.6% annualized vs 15.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 19.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BTG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BTG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying BTG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +8.8% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +13.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +13.6% vs +28.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BTG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BTG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BTG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $3.16 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $3.61 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $4.20 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $5.03 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $6.26 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | $0.07 | $0.03 | -58.9% |
| 2026-05-07 | $0.11 | $0.19 | +67.7% |
| 2026-02-18 | $0.18 | $0.11 | -39.2% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.13 | $0.14 | +9.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BTG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BTG has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +10.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2013 | Aug 2013 | 17 | 21.0% | +6.6% | +169.7% |
| Aug 2013 | Mar 2014 | 27 | 30.8% | -3.4% | +161.6% |
| Mar 2014 | Jun 2016 | 118 | 72.6% | -40.9% | +152.1% |
| Aug 2018 | Aug 2018 | 1 | 1.6% | +66.2% | +222.2% |
| Sep 2018 | Sep 2018 | 1 | 0.2% | +41.8% | +216.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 5.5% | +68.3% | +151.8% |
| Aug 2021 | Aug 2021 | 1 | 1.4% | -6.8% | +82.2% |
| Sep 2021 | Oct 2021 | 5 | 8.8% | -0.6% | +82.7% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 3 | 1.7% | +0.4% | +78.2% |
| Jan 2022 | Feb 2022 | 5 | 8.1% | +12.5% | +79.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Jan 2023 | 29 | 25.5% | +5.3% | +76.2% |
| Jan 2023 | Apr 2023 | 9 | 16.2% | -23.4% | +65.2% |
| Apr 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 1.0% | -30.0% | +57.1% |
| May 2023 | Oct 2024 | 74 | 35.4% | -21.6% | +59.2% |
| Nov 2024 | Apr 2025 | 22 | 24.4% | +36.2% | +93.6% |
| Apr 2025 | May 2025 | 3 | 3.6% | +49.7% | +90.1% |
| Average | 20 | — | +10.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BTG below its 200-week moving average?
No. B2Gold Corp. (BTG) is currently 60.2% above its 200-week moving average of $3.43. It would need to fall to $3.43 to cross below the line.
What is BTG's 200-week moving average price?
B2Gold Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $3.43 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BTG drops below its 200-week moving average?
BTG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is BTG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BTG as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 68. Free cash flow yield is 4.1%. Return on equity is 22.6%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BTG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17.3 years, $100 invested in BTG would have grown to $1054, compared to $1124 for the S&P 500. That's 14.6% annualized vs 15.0% for the index. BTG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BTG pay a dividend?
Yes. B2Gold Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 148.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18