BSM
Black Stone Minerals, L.P. Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM) closed at $14.82 as of 2026-09-18, trading 18.1% above its 200-week moving average of $12.55. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 19.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.70 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 546 weeks of data, BSM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BSM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.2%.
With a market cap of $3.2 billion, BSM is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.1%. Return on equity stands at 25.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.9x book value.
BSM passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 10.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BSM would have grown to $226, compared to $437 for the S&P 500. BSM has returned 8.1% annualized vs 15.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -22.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BSM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BSM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying BSM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +2.2% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +11.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.2% vs +36.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BSM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BSM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BSM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-02.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $12.24 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $12.90 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $13.63 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $14.45 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $15.38 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | $0.25 | $0.30 | +20.0% |
| 2026-05-04 | $0.23 | $0.28 | +20.0% |
| 2026-02-23 | $0.27 | $0.22 | -19.3% |
| 2025-11-03 | $0.29 | $0.30 | +4.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BSM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BSM has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +8.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 0.6% | +22.8% | +163.3% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 4 | 3.4% | -44.4% | +105.6% |
| Sep 2019 | Sep 2021 | 104 | 68.4% | -52.0% | +103.4% |
| Dec 2021 | Jan 2022 | 3 | 4.0% | +86.3% | +141.0% |
| Jul 2025 | Sep 2025 | 8 | 3.7% | +28.4% | +36.0% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 0.2% | N/A | +28.8% |
| Average | 20 | — | +8.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BSM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM) is currently 18.1% above its 200-week moving average of $12.55. It would need to fall to $12.55 to cross below the line.
What is BSM's 200-week moving average price?
Black Stone Minerals, L.P.'s 200-week moving average is $12.55 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BSM drops below its 200-week moving average?
BSM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is BSM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BSM as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 66. Free cash flow yield is 3.1%. Return on equity is 25.6%. Price-to-book is 3.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BSM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 10.5 years, $100 invested in BSM would have grown to $226, compared to $437 for the S&P 500. That's 8.1% annualized vs 15.1% for the index. BSM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BSM pay a dividend?
Yes. Black Stone Minerals, L.P. currently pays a dividend yield of 824.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18