BRSP
BrightSpire Capital, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP) closed at $5.01 as of 2026-07-31, trading 3.9% above its 200-week moving average of $4.82. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 8.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 26, BRSP is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 395 weeks of data, BRSP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 38 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -0.3%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $634 million, BRSP is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -3.7%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
Over the past 7.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BRSP would have grown to $61, compared to $309 for the S&P 500. BRSP has returned -6.3% annualized vs 16.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -16.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BRSP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BRSP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying BRSP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.0% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +18.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -0.8% vs +43.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BRSP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BRSP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BRSP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $5.20 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $5.36 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $5.52 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $5.70 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $5.88 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BRSP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BRSP has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +-0.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2019 | Jul 2023 | 235 | 81.0% | -10.8% | -38.7% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 14 | 16.5% | -14.1% | +3.8% |
| Apr 2024 | Jul 2024 | 10 | 7.4% | -2.0% | +8.7% |
| Jul 2024 | Nov 2024 | 14 | 14.9% | +5.0% | +14.4% |
| Dec 2024 | Feb 2025 | 8 | 6.0% | +10.9% | +2.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Aug 2025 | 20 | 24.5% | +9.0% | +5.1% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 3.2% | N/A | +7.8% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1 | 1.2% | N/A | +5.9% |
| Average | 38 | — | +-0.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BRSP below its 200-week moving average?
No. BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP) is currently 3.9% above its 200-week moving average of $4.82. It would need to fall to $4.82 to cross below the line.
What is BRSP's 200-week moving average price?
BrightSpire Capital, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $4.82 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BRSP drops below its 200-week moving average?
BRSP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -0.3%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 38 weeks on average.
Is BRSP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BRSP as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 26 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -3.7%. Price-to-book is 0.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BRSP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 7.6 years, $100 invested in BRSP would have grown to $61, compared to $309 for the S&P 500. That's -6.3% annualized vs 16.1% for the index. BRSP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BRSP pay a dividend?
Yes. BrightSpire Capital, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1283.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31