BPOP
Popular, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Popular, Inc. (BPOP) closed at $175.21 as of 2026-07-31, trading 89.8% above its 200-week moving average of $92.32. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 87.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 82, BPOP is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, BPOP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BPOP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +42.0%.
With a market cap of $11.2 billion, BPOP is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 15.6%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BPOP would have grown to $987, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. BPOP has returned 7.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -9.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BPOP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BPOP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying BPOP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +39.6% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +14.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +51.5% vs +20.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BPOP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BPOP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BPOP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $133.02 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $140.28 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $148.38 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $157.47 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $167.75 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BPOP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BPOP has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +42.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1981 | Oct 1982 | 57 | 26.0% | -11.8% | +18858.6% |
| Nov 1987 | Feb 1988 | 16 | 10.9% | +27.2% | +5051.8% |
| Apr 1988 | Jun 1988 | 8 | 2.3% | +25.5% | +4389.7% |
| Aug 1988 | Aug 1988 | 2 | 1.3% | +89.9% | +4165.6% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 1 | 1.0% | +125.4% | +3994.0% |
| Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 2 | 1.0% | +14.7% | +171.0% |
| Feb 2000 | Oct 2000 | 36 | 22.1% | +21.6% | +176.2% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2000 | 6 | 1.4% | +20.5% | +149.1% |
| Jan 2001 | Jan 2001 | 1 | 1.1% | +19.3% | +145.1% |
| Jan 2006 | Mar 2006 | 6 | 3.2% | -2.7% | +35.5% |
| May 2006 | Jan 2013 | 350 | 90.5% | -11.0% | +38.0% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 14.3% | +74.2% | +799.8% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 3.7% | +53.0% | +766.6% |
| Oct 2017 | Oct 2017 | 1 | 0.1% | +58.1% | +590.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 35 | 39.3% | +64.0% | +384.2% |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | 11 | 15.7% | +67.2% | +277.6% |
| Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | 2 | 3.2% | +50.0% | +225.1% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 1.3% | +71.4% | +211.5% |
| Average | 30 | — | +42.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BPOP below its 200-week moving average?
No. Popular, Inc. (BPOP) is currently 89.8% above its 200-week moving average of $92.32. It would need to fall to $92.32 to cross below the line.
What is BPOP's 200-week moving average price?
Popular, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $92.32 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BPOP drops below its 200-week moving average?
BPOP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +42.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is BPOP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BPOP as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 82 (overbought). Return on equity is 15.6%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BPOP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in BPOP would have grown to $987, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 7.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. BPOP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BPOP pay a dividend?
Yes. Popular, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 171.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31