BOKF
BOK Financial Corporation Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) closed at $141.29 as of 2026-07-31, trading 44.1% above its 200-week moving average of $98.06. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 45.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 62, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1773 weeks of data, BOKF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BOKF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.3%.
With a market cap of $8.6 billion, BOKF is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 10.9%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BOKF would have grown to $3301, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming BOKF as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -47.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BOKF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BOKF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying BOKF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.6% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +16.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +37.5% vs +35.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BOKF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BOKF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BOKF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $122.68 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $130.71 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $139.87 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $150.41 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $162.66 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BOKF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BOKF has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +17.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1992 | Dec 1992 | 15 | 21.5% | +47.2% | +4373.7% |
| Jan 2000 | Dec 2000 | 48 | 16.2% | +22.4% | +1358.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Sep 2008 | 10 | 18.0% | -16.9% | +403.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2009 | 54 | 50.7% | -0.2% | +368.5% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 6 | 7.2% | +1.2% | +370.4% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 0.4% | +13.1% | +367.5% |
| Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | 1 | 0.1% | +14.1% | +365.8% |
| Aug 2010 | Oct 2010 | 11 | 6.1% | +1.2% | +362.0% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 2 | 3.3% | +28.7% | +356.6% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 0.2% | +30.9% | +357.7% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 4 | 4.5% | +2.3% | +238.7% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 1 | 0.6% | +45.9% | +210.9% |
| Jan 2016 | Apr 2016 | 15 | 20.9% | +54.3% | +231.1% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 3.1% | +50.3% | +216.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 3.7% | +23.8% | +138.1% |
| May 2019 | Jul 2019 | 5 | 2.6% | -30.0% | +125.4% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 3 | 2.3% | -24.9% | +122.7% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 4 | 3.1% | -25.9% | +123.2% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 2 | 1.3% | -3.2% | +111.4% |
| Feb 2020 | Jan 2021 | 45 | 53.4% | +22.9% | +128.9% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 2.6% | +40.5% | +118.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 0.7% | +18.0% | +104.0% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 2 | 3.4% | +12.0% | +103.3% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 3.5% | +27.2% | +99.9% |
| Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | 11 | 18.3% | +37.6% | +90.6% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 1.5% | +56.0% | +65.2% |
| Average | 10 | — | +17.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BOKF below its 200-week moving average?
No. BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) is currently 44.1% above its 200-week moving average of $98.06. It would need to fall to $98.06 to cross below the line.
What is BOKF's 200-week moving average price?
BOK Financial Corporation's 200-week moving average is $98.06 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BOKF drops below its 200-week moving average?
BOKF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is BOKF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BOKF as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 62. Return on equity is 10.9%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BOKF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in BOKF would have grown to $3301, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 11.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. BOKF has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BOKF pay a dividend?
Yes. BOK Financial Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 179.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31