BOKF

BOK Financial Corporation Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →

NO
35.4% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 40.1% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $96.28
14-Week RSI 56
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.3x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.92

BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) closed at $130.33 as of 2026-06-19, trading 35.4% above its 200-week moving average of $96.28. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 40.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1767 weeks of data, BOKF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BOKF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.3%.

With a market cap of $7.9 billion, BOKF is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 10.4%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.5% over the past three years.

Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BOKF would have grown to $3045, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. BOKF has returned 10.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -47.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: BOKF vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After BOKF Crosses Below the Line?

Across 26 historical episodes, buying BOKF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.6% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +16.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +37.5% vs +35.6% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BOKF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BOKF would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score +1.18σ
Current FCF Yield 6.00%
Baseline Yield 6.05%
Historical σ 0.41pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where BOKF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-20.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$122.43Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$130.87Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$140.56Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$151.80Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$165.00Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from BOKF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

⚠ Earnings quality deteriorating — net income is outrunning free cash flow vs this company's own norm. Cheapness signals here deserve extra scrutiny.
Yield Dislocation -1.31σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -0.67σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative +0.14σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -2.2pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History N/A Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Deteriorating Accrual gap trend (+84.4pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

BOKF has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +17.3% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Aug 1992Dec 19921521.5%+47.2%+4026.7%
Jan 2000Dec 20004816.2%+22.4%+1245.1%
Jun 2008Sep 20081018.0%-16.9%+364.5%
Sep 2008Oct 20095450.7%-0.2%+332.2%
Oct 2009Nov 200967.1%+1.2%+333.9%
Feb 2010Feb 201010.4%+13.1%+331.2%
Feb 2010Mar 201010.1%+14.1%+329.7%
Aug 2010Oct 2010116.1%+1.1%+328.4%
Aug 2011Aug 201123.3%+29.5%+323.7%
Sep 2011Sep 201110.2%+30.9%+322.2%
Jan 2015Feb 201544.5%+2.3%+212.4%
Dec 2015Dec 201510.6%+45.9%+186.7%
Jan 2016Apr 20161520.8%+54.3%+205.4%
May 2016May 201623.0%+50.3%+191.6%
Dec 2018Dec 201823.7%+23.8%+119.6%
May 2019Jul 201952.5%-30.0%+107.9%
Aug 2019Sep 201932.3%-24.9%+105.5%
Sep 2019Oct 201943.0%-25.9%+105.9%
Jan 2020Feb 202021.2%-3.2%+95.0%
Feb 2020Jan 20214553.4%+22.9%+111.2%
Jan 2021Feb 202112.5%+40.5%+101.4%
Jun 2022Jun 202210.7%+18.0%+88.2%
Jul 2022Jul 202223.3%+12.0%+87.6%
May 2023May 202314.2%+28.1%+85.7%
Sep 2023Dec 20231118.3%+37.6%+75.8%
Apr 2025Apr 202511.5%+56.0%+52.3%
Average10+17.3%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is BOKF below its 200-week moving average?

No. BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) is currently 35.4% above its 200-week moving average of $96.28. It would need to fall to $96.28 to cross below the line.

What is BOKF's 200-week moving average price?

BOK Financial Corporation's 200-week moving average is $96.28 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when BOKF drops below its 200-week moving average?

BOKF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.

Is BOKF a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about BOKF as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 56. Return on equity is 10.4%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does BOKF compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in BOKF would have grown to $3045, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 10.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. BOKF has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does BOKF pay a dividend?

Yes. BOK Financial Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 189.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19