BNY

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation Financial Services - Banks - Diversified Investor Relations →

NO
109.4% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 113.9% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Signal Threshold $77.67
14-Week RSI 76
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 0.8x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.94

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BNY) closed at $162.66 as of 2026-09-11, trading 109.4% above its 200-week moving average of $77.67. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 113.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, BNY is in overbought territory.

Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 2736 weeks of data, BNY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 44 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BNY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.3%.

With a market cap of $110.4 billion, BNY is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 14.1%. The stock trades at 2.8x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.9% over the past three years.

Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BNY would have grown to $4783, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming BNY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -27.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: BNY vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After BNY Crosses Below the Line?

Across 25 historical episodes, buying BNY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.7% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +10.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +46.6% vs +34.0% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BNY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BNY would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -1.38σ
Current FCF Yield 1.32%
Baseline Yield 1.77%
Historical σ 0.16pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where BNY's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-15.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$115.14Unusually cheap — analysis point
Value+1σ$126.05Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$139.24Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$155.52Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$176.10Unusually expensive — analysis point

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Recent Earnings

DateEPS Est.EPS ActualSurprise
2026-07-15$2.22$2.46+10.7%
2026-04-16$1.93$2.25+16.5%
2026-01-13$1.98$2.08+4.9%
2025-10-16$1.77$1.91+8.1%
Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 36 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

12 / 13 weeks minimum

the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from BNY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

⚠ Earnings quality deteriorating — net income is outrunning free cash flow vs this company's own norm. Cheapness signals here deserve extra scrutiny.
Yield Dislocation -1.77σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -2.58σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative N/A Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration +1.1pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History N/A Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Deteriorating Accrual gap trend (+17.9pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

Historical Touches

BNY has crossed below its 200-week MA 44 times with an average 1-year return of +10.3% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Apr 1974Jun 19756330.3%-4.4%+35004.8%
Aug 1975Jan 19762316.0%+10.7%+37555.2%
Mar 1976Mar 197611.1%+18.3%+36613.8%
Oct 1976Nov 197641.6%+4.9%+36160.5%
Oct 1977Nov 197723.6%+5.7%+35864.5%
Dec 1977Jan 197852.8%+4.0%+35573.3%
Jan 1978Mar 197861.6%+11.9%+36160.5%
Apr 1978Apr 197811.0%+5.7%+35864.5%
Oct 1978Dec 197883.1%+7.5%+34727.3%
Apr 1979Jun 1979122.4%-8.9%+33920.5%
Oct 1979Oct 197923.0%+12.5%+34185.3%
Feb 1980Jun 19801618.7%+6.5%+33403.1%
Oct 1980Dec 198086.0%+10.8%+32778.0%
Sep 1981Oct 198133.9%+24.4%+32534.5%
Oct 1987Oct 198712.9%+21.7%+11649.4%
Nov 1987Jun 19883021.5%+24.2%+11892.1%
Jan 1990Jan 199010.3%-39.4%+8766.1%
Mar 1990May 1990917.8%-17.9%+9113.2%
Jun 1990May 19915051.3%+2.0%+9121.7%
Jun 1991Jul 1991311.9%+49.5%+10508.0%
Sep 1991Oct 199114.6%+60.9%+9957.4%
Nov 1991Dec 1991410.1%+88.3%+9921.0%
Sep 2001Nov 20011121.1%-5.5%+666.0%
Feb 2002Mar 200246.4%-36.9%+616.3%
Apr 2002Nov 200413546.1%-41.9%+599.8%
Nov 2004Nov 200410.3%+3.0%+684.7%
Jan 2005Jul 20052610.0%+4.3%+718.4%
Oct 2005Oct 200510.9%+25.3%+755.7%
Jul 2008Aug 200843.8%-21.2%+592.1%
Aug 2008Dec 201222548.8%-13.0%+612.8%
Dec 2018Dec 201810.6%+16.2%+351.4%
May 2019Jul 201996.5%-21.4%+341.3%
Aug 2019Sep 2019410.3%-8.6%+367.7%
Sep 2019Oct 201947.1%-22.7%+344.6%
Jan 2020Mar 20215937.5%+1.9%+325.8%
Apr 2022May 202255.4%+3.0%+316.9%
Jun 2022Aug 202297.2%+7.4%+327.3%
Aug 2022Sep 202226.2%+7.8%+331.7%
Sep 2022Nov 2022712.2%+10.0%+351.3%
Mar 2023Mar 202321.4%+32.5%+318.8%
Apr 2023Jun 202366.6%+39.3%+315.0%
Jun 2023Jun 202310.5%+42.1%+312.6%
Jul 2023Jul 202311.4%+57.4%+315.6%
Sep 2023Oct 202364.0%+73.8%+310.1%
Average18+10.3%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is BNY below its 200-week moving average?

No. The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BNY) is currently 109.4% above its 200-week moving average of $77.67. It would need to fall to $77.67 to cross below the line.

What is BNY's 200-week moving average price?

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation's 200-week moving average is $77.67 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when BNY drops below its 200-week moving average?

BNY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 44 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.

Is BNY a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about BNY as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Return on equity is 14.1%. Price-to-book is 2.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does BNY compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in BNY would have grown to $4783, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 12.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. BNY has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does BNY pay a dividend?

Yes. The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 137.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-09-11