BNY
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation Financial Services - Banks - Diversified Investor Relations →
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BNY) closed at $162.66 as of 2026-09-11, trading 109.4% above its 200-week moving average of $77.67. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 113.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, BNY is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2736 weeks of data, BNY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 44 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BNY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.3%.
With a market cap of $110.4 billion, BNY is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 14.1%. The stock trades at 2.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BNY would have grown to $4783, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming BNY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -27.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BNY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BNY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying BNY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.7% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +10.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +46.6% vs +34.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BNY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BNY would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BNY's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-15.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $115.14 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $126.05 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $139.24 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $155.52 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $176.10 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $2.22 | $2.46 | +10.7% |
| 2026-04-16 | $1.93 | $2.25 | +16.5% |
| 2026-01-13 | $1.98 | $2.08 | +4.9% |
| 2025-10-16 | $1.77 | $1.91 | +8.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BNY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BNY has crossed below its 200-week MA 44 times with an average 1-year return of +10.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1974 | Jun 1975 | 63 | 30.3% | -4.4% | +35004.8% |
| Aug 1975 | Jan 1976 | 23 | 16.0% | +10.7% | +37555.2% |
| Mar 1976 | Mar 1976 | 1 | 1.1% | +18.3% | +36613.8% |
| Oct 1976 | Nov 1976 | 4 | 1.6% | +4.9% | +36160.5% |
| Oct 1977 | Nov 1977 | 2 | 3.6% | +5.7% | +35864.5% |
| Dec 1977 | Jan 1978 | 5 | 2.8% | +4.0% | +35573.3% |
| Jan 1978 | Mar 1978 | 6 | 1.6% | +11.9% | +36160.5% |
| Apr 1978 | Apr 1978 | 1 | 1.0% | +5.7% | +35864.5% |
| Oct 1978 | Dec 1978 | 8 | 3.1% | +7.5% | +34727.3% |
| Apr 1979 | Jun 1979 | 12 | 2.4% | -8.9% | +33920.5% |
| Oct 1979 | Oct 1979 | 2 | 3.0% | +12.5% | +34185.3% |
| Feb 1980 | Jun 1980 | 16 | 18.7% | +6.5% | +33403.1% |
| Oct 1980 | Dec 1980 | 8 | 6.0% | +10.8% | +32778.0% |
| Sep 1981 | Oct 1981 | 3 | 3.9% | +24.4% | +32534.5% |
| Oct 1987 | Oct 1987 | 1 | 2.9% | +21.7% | +11649.4% |
| Nov 1987 | Jun 1988 | 30 | 21.5% | +24.2% | +11892.1% |
| Jan 1990 | Jan 1990 | 1 | 0.3% | -39.4% | +8766.1% |
| Mar 1990 | May 1990 | 9 | 17.8% | -17.9% | +9113.2% |
| Jun 1990 | May 1991 | 50 | 51.3% | +2.0% | +9121.7% |
| Jun 1991 | Jul 1991 | 3 | 11.9% | +49.5% | +10508.0% |
| Sep 1991 | Oct 1991 | 1 | 4.6% | +60.9% | +9957.4% |
| Nov 1991 | Dec 1991 | 4 | 10.1% | +88.3% | +9921.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 11 | 21.1% | -5.5% | +666.0% |
| Feb 2002 | Mar 2002 | 4 | 6.4% | -36.9% | +616.3% |
| Apr 2002 | Nov 2004 | 135 | 46.1% | -41.9% | +599.8% |
| Nov 2004 | Nov 2004 | 1 | 0.3% | +3.0% | +684.7% |
| Jan 2005 | Jul 2005 | 26 | 10.0% | +4.3% | +718.4% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 1 | 0.9% | +25.3% | +755.7% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 4 | 3.8% | -21.2% | +592.1% |
| Aug 2008 | Dec 2012 | 225 | 48.8% | -13.0% | +612.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.6% | +16.2% | +351.4% |
| May 2019 | Jul 2019 | 9 | 6.5% | -21.4% | +341.3% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 4 | 10.3% | -8.6% | +367.7% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 4 | 7.1% | -22.7% | +344.6% |
| Jan 2020 | Mar 2021 | 59 | 37.5% | +1.9% | +325.8% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 5 | 5.4% | +3.0% | +316.9% |
| Jun 2022 | Aug 2022 | 9 | 7.2% | +7.4% | +327.3% |
| Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | 2 | 6.2% | +7.8% | +331.7% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 7 | 12.2% | +10.0% | +351.3% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 2 | 1.4% | +32.5% | +318.8% |
| Apr 2023 | Jun 2023 | 6 | 6.6% | +39.3% | +315.0% |
| Jun 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 0.5% | +42.1% | +312.6% |
| Jul 2023 | Jul 2023 | 1 | 1.4% | +57.4% | +315.6% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 6 | 4.0% | +73.8% | +310.1% |
| Average | 18 | — | +10.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BNY below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BNY) is currently 109.4% above its 200-week moving average of $77.67. It would need to fall to $77.67 to cross below the line.
What is BNY's 200-week moving average price?
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation's 200-week moving average is $77.67 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BNY drops below its 200-week moving average?
BNY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 44 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is BNY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BNY as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Return on equity is 14.1%. Price-to-book is 2.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BNY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in BNY would have grown to $4783, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 12.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. BNY has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BNY pay a dividend?
Yes. The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 137.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11