BNS
Bank of Nova Scotia Financial Services Investor Relations →
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) closed at $93.45 as of 2026-09-11, trading 76.1% above its 200-week moving average of $53.08. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 77.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, BNS is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1218 weeks of data, BNS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BNS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.2%.
With a market cap of $113.9 billion, BNS is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 11.5%. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
Share count has increased 3.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 23.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BNS would have grown to $1224, compared to $1205 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.3% vs 11.2% for the index — confirming BNS as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -32.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BNS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BNS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying BNS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.8% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +18.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +35.7% vs +43.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BNS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BNS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BNS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-12-02.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $70.51 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $87.87 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $116.59 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $173.19 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $336.59 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | $2.10 | $2.28 | +8.6% |
| 2026-05-27 | $1.94 | $2.02 | +4.2% |
| 2026-02-24 | $1.95 | $2.05 | +5.0% |
| 2025-12-02 | $1.84 | $1.93 | +4.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BNS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BNS has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +8.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 40 | 48.7% | +38.4% | +521.8% |
| Jan 2015 | Apr 2015 | 13 | 9.1% | -26.0% | +222.0% |
| Jun 2015 | Apr 2016 | 44 | 28.5% | +1.1% | +212.7% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 4 | 3.6% | +21.7% | +221.7% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 4 | 1.9% | +22.9% | +209.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 2.9% | +19.0% | +182.6% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 0.3% | -16.8% | +168.7% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 2 | 0.3% | -9.7% | +163.8% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 39 | 33.6% | +18.5% | +150.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 7 | 7.9% | -1.8% | +125.9% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 5 | 6.8% | -5.0% | +125.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | 5 | 6.4% | +12.6% | +134.6% |
| Apr 2023 | Jul 2023 | 12 | 5.0% | -0.4% | +120.1% |
| Jul 2023 | Mar 2024 | 31 | 18.4% | +1.4% | +124.7% |
| Apr 2024 | Aug 2024 | 20 | 8.5% | +1.6% | +113.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 7 | 3.6% | +53.7% | +103.4% |
| Average | 15 | — | +8.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BNS below its 200-week moving average?
No. Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) is currently 76.1% above its 200-week moving average of $53.08. It would need to fall to $53.08 to cross below the line.
What is BNS's 200-week moving average price?
Bank of Nova Scotia's 200-week moving average is $53.08 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BNS drops below its 200-week moving average?
BNS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is BNS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BNS as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Return on equity is 11.5%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BNS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 23.4 years, $100 invested in BNS would have grown to $1224, compared to $1205 for the S&P 500. That's 11.3% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. BNS has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BNS pay a dividend?
Yes. Bank of Nova Scotia currently pays a dividend yield of 355.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11