BMRC

Bank of Marin Bancorp Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →

NO
36.9% ABOVE
↑ Moving away Was 35.2% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $21.31
14-Week RSI 77
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.6x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.37

Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) closed at $29.16 as of 2026-07-31, trading 36.9% above its 200-week moving average of $21.31. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 35.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 77, BMRC is in overbought territory.

Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.37 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1340 weeks of data, BMRC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BMRC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.9%.

With a market cap of $472 million, BMRC is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -3.4%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.

Over the past 25.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BMRC would have grown to $846, compared to $895 for the S&P 500. BMRC has returned 8.6% annualized vs 8.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -11.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: BMRC vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After BMRC Crosses Below the Line?

Across 17 historical episodes, buying BMRC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.9% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +3.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +3.6% vs +6.9% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BMRC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BMRC would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -1.96σ
Current FCF Yield 7.29%
Baseline Yield 8.10%
Historical σ 0.34pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where BMRC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$23.96Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$24.95Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$26.03Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$27.20Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$28.48Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 26 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

12 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from BMRC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation -0.06σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -0.86σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative +0.47σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -0.1pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity 16th TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History N/A Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Improving Accrual gap trend (-229.3pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

Historical Touches

BMRC has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +4.9% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Dec 2000Dec 200010.2%+15.4%+776.0%
Apr 2001Apr 200123.5%+30.0%+791.7%
Apr 2001May 200142.2%+46.5%+780.7%
Aug 2007Aug 200713.0%+0.8%+213.2%
Nov 2007Sep 20084423.3%-10.6%+199.2%
Sep 2008Jul 20094240.5%+3.1%+195.7%
Mar 2020Nov 20203729.6%+33.5%+16.3%
Dec 2020Jan 202114.5%+11.3%+5.9%
Apr 2021Aug 20211715.3%-5.8%+0.6%
Aug 2021Sep 202132.1%-12.5%-0.3%
Nov 2021Dec 202134.4%+2.8%+1.8%
Feb 2022Oct 20223614.7%-14.5%-2.9%
Nov 2022Nov 202211.3%-44.2%+0.4%
Dec 2022Nov 202410055.4%-35.5%+1.8%
Dec 2024Jan 202579.2%+17.7%+25.2%
Mar 2025Jun 20251716.6%+9.6%+31.8%
Jul 2025Aug 202523.2%+36.5%+36.5%
Average19+4.9%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is BMRC below its 200-week moving average?

No. Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) is currently 36.9% above its 200-week moving average of $21.31. It would need to fall to $21.31 to cross below the line.

What is BMRC's 200-week moving average price?

Bank of Marin Bancorp's 200-week moving average is $21.31 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when BMRC drops below its 200-week moving average?

BMRC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +4.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.

Is BMRC a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about BMRC as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 77 (overbought). Return on equity is -3.4%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does BMRC compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 25.8 years, $100 invested in BMRC would have grown to $846, compared to $895 for the S&P 500. That's 8.6% annualized vs 8.9% for the index. BMRC has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does BMRC pay a dividend?

Yes. Bank of Marin Bancorp currently pays a dividend yield of 348.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-07-31