BMRC
Bank of Marin Bancorp Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) closed at $28.23 as of 2026-09-18, trading 33.8% above its 200-week moving average of $21.10. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 31.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 64, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.3x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1347 weeks of data, BMRC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BMRC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.9%.
With a market cap of $457 million, BMRC is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -3.4%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Over the past 25.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BMRC would have grown to $826, compared to $914 for the S&P 500. BMRC has returned 8.5% annualized vs 8.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -11.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BMRC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BMRC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying BMRC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.9% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +3.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +3.6% vs +6.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BMRC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BMRC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BMRC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-26.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $26.79 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $27.61 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $28.48 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $29.40 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $30.39 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | $0.52 | $0.58 | +12.6% |
| 2026-04-27 | $0.55 | $0.53 | -3.0% |
| 2026-01-26 | $0.52 | $0.52 | +1.8% |
| 2025-10-27 | $0.41 | $0.47 | +13.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BMRC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BMRC has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +4.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2000 | Dec 2000 | 1 | 0.2% | +15.4% | +755.4% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 2 | 3.5% | +30.0% | +770.7% |
| Apr 2001 | May 2001 | 4 | 2.2% | +46.5% | +760.0% |
| Aug 2007 | Aug 2007 | 1 | 3.0% | +0.8% | +205.9% |
| Nov 2007 | Sep 2008 | 44 | 23.3% | -10.6% | +192.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Jul 2009 | 42 | 40.5% | +3.1% | +188.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 29.6% | +33.5% | +13.6% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 1 | 4.5% | +11.3% | +3.4% |
| Apr 2021 | Aug 2021 | 17 | 15.3% | -5.8% | -1.7% |
| Aug 2021 | Sep 2021 | 3 | 2.1% | -12.5% | -2.6% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 3 | 4.4% | +2.8% | -0.6% |
| Feb 2022 | Oct 2022 | 36 | 14.7% | -14.5% | -5.2% |
| Nov 2022 | Nov 2022 | 1 | 1.3% | -44.2% | -1.9% |
| Dec 2022 | Nov 2024 | 100 | 55.4% | -35.5% | -0.6% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 7 | 9.2% | +17.7% | +22.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 17 | 16.6% | +9.6% | +28.7% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2 | 3.2% | +36.5% | +33.3% |
| Average | 19 | — | +4.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BMRC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) is currently 33.8% above its 200-week moving average of $21.10. It would need to fall to $21.10 to cross below the line.
What is BMRC's 200-week moving average price?
Bank of Marin Bancorp's 200-week moving average is $21.10 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BMRC drops below its 200-week moving average?
BMRC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +4.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is BMRC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BMRC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 64. Return on equity is -3.4%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BMRC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 25.9 years, $100 invested in BMRC would have grown to $826, compared to $914 for the S&P 500. That's 8.5% annualized vs 8.9% for the index. BMRC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BMRC pay a dividend?
Yes. Bank of Marin Bancorp currently pays a dividend yield of 352.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18