BMI
Badger Meter, Inc. Technology - Scientific & Technical Instruments Investor Relations →
Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI) closed at $134.35 as of 2026-07-31, trading 18.6% below its 200-week moving average of $165.11. This places BMI in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -23.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2740 weeks of data, BMI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BMI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.1%.
With a market cap of $3.9 billion, BMI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.3%. Return on equity stands at 18.5%, a solid level. The stock trades at 5.7x book value.
BMI passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BMI would have grown to $19037, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming BMI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 8 open-market purchases totaling $2,032,652. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while BMI is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 30.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BMI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BMI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying BMI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.9% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +16.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 91% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +56.6% vs +36.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BMI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BMI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BMI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $113.88 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $122.86 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $133.37 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $145.85 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $160.90 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BMI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BMI has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +16.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Jun 1975 | 71 | 44.0% | -27.9% | +50978.7% |
| Jul 1975 | Jan 1976 | 25 | 29.1% | +17.5% | +60835.9% |
| Sep 1976 | Oct 1976 | 3 | 0.6% | +60.7% | +56840.1% |
| Dec 1978 | Jan 1979 | 3 | 4.1% | +14.7% | +46211.3% |
| May 1979 | Jul 1979 | 6 | 3.2% | -3.7% | +43316.9% |
| Oct 1979 | Jan 1980 | 13 | 7.6% | +9.4% | +40762.9% |
| Mar 1980 | Sep 1980 | 26 | 19.4% | -2.4% | +40762.9% |
| Oct 1980 | Nov 1980 | 4 | 7.1% | -34.9% | +40287.8% |
| Nov 1980 | Jan 1981 | 9 | 19.6% | -36.0% | +40287.8% |
| Feb 1981 | Feb 1983 | 104 | 40.3% | -34.9% | +40287.8% |
| Mar 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 0.6% | -1.4% | +48141.0% |
| Dec 1983 | Dec 1983 | 1 | 1.2% | -1.4% | +49519.3% |
| Dec 1983 | Jan 1984 | 1 | 3.4% | +5.9% | +50978.7% |
| Feb 1984 | Mar 1984 | 5 | 2.9% | +52.9% | +50978.7% |
| Apr 1984 | Sep 1984 | 22 | 15.4% | +20.6% | +50978.7% |
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1988 | 15 | 16.1% | +40.2% | +33952.5% |
| Aug 1990 | Feb 1991 | 27 | 22.2% | +1.8% | +25029.0% |
| Apr 1991 | Jun 1991 | 5 | 5.9% | +3.1% | +25797.3% |
| Jul 1991 | Jul 1991 | 3 | 1.7% | +0.6% | +25549.0% |
| Aug 1991 | Feb 1992 | 23 | 15.0% | -0.2% | +25314.3% |
| Apr 1992 | May 1992 | 4 | 2.2% | +29.0% | +25020.8% |
| Jun 1992 | Sep 1992 | 11 | 6.0% | +38.2% | +25609.1% |
| Oct 1992 | Nov 1992 | 5 | 2.5% | +27.3% | +24750.9% |
| May 2000 | Apr 2002 | 96 | 30.9% | +1.3% | +5122.9% |
| Jun 2002 | Jul 2002 | 2 | 0.9% | +8.4% | +5305.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 8 | 26.5% | +64.7% | +1274.3% |
| Jan 2009 | Mar 2009 | 12 | 20.5% | +60.4% | +1145.4% |
| Apr 2011 | Apr 2012 | 52 | 25.6% | +3.0% | +780.0% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 1.1% | +29.4% | +792.4% |
| Jul 2012 | Sep 2012 | 5 | 3.0% | +44.0% | +809.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 1.9% | +109.7% | +209.1% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 27+ | 30.1% | Ongoing | -7.8% |
| Average | 18 | — | +16.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BMI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI) is trading 18.6% below its 200-week moving average of $165.11. The current price is $134.35.
What is BMI's 200-week moving average price?
Badger Meter, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $165.11 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BMI drops below its 200-week moving average?
BMI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is BMI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BMI as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 3.3%. Return on equity is 18.5%. Price-to-book is 5.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BMI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in BMI would have grown to $19037, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 16.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. BMI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BMI pay a dividend?
Yes. Badger Meter, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 123.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31