BLMN
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Restaurants Investor Relations →
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) closed at $8.06 as of 2026-06-19, trading 47.6% below its 200-week moving average of $15.38. This places BLMN in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -46.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.41 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 675 weeks of data, BLMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BLMN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.5%.
With a market cap of $690 million, BLMN is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 33.0%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 6.8%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.8% reduction over three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 13 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BLMN would have grown to $42, compared to $552 for the S&P 500. BLMN has returned -6.5% annualized vs 14.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 4 open-market purchases totaling $1,029,915. Notably, these purchases occurred while BLMN is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BLMN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BLMN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying BLMN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.8% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +12.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +7.5% vs +37.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BLMN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BLMN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BLMN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $4.52 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $5.14 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $5.97 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $7.12 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $8.81 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BLMN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BLMN has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +11.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2014 | Nov 2014 | 15 | 21.6% | +10.6% | -48.1% |
| Aug 2015 | Apr 2017 | 88 | 23.9% | -3.6% | -49.0% |
| Jul 2017 | Nov 2017 | 17 | 14.8% | +13.1% | -42.5% |
| Jul 2018 | Sep 2018 | 7 | 6.9% | -3.2% | -45.2% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 2.7% | +6.5% | -47.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 9.4% | +22.2% | -46.2% |
| Jan 2019 | Feb 2019 | 2 | 3.4% | +14.9% | -48.1% |
| May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | 1.9% | -39.8% | -46.9% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 9 | 16.4% | -42.7% | -46.3% |
| Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 2.5% | -3.1% | -46.7% |
| Feb 2020 | Dec 2020 | 42 | 74.4% | +39.5% | -46.3% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 5 | 5.9% | +27.5% | -49.2% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 2 | 1.8% | +26.5% | -50.5% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 0.4% | +40.2% | -51.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 7 | 14.4% | +38.7% | -50.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 5.4% | +36.6% | -49.1% |
| May 2024 | Ongoing | 109+ | 67.0% | Ongoing | -57.9% |
| Average | 18 | — | +11.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BLMN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) is trading 47.6% below its 200-week moving average of $15.38. The current price is $8.06.
What is BLMN's 200-week moving average price?
Bloomin' Brands, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $15.38 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BLMN drops below its 200-week moving average?
BLMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is BLMN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BLMN as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 65. Free cash flow yield is 33.0%. Return on equity is 6.8%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BLMN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 13 years, $100 invested in BLMN would have grown to $42, compared to $552 for the S&P 500. That's -6.5% annualized vs 14.0% for the index. BLMN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BLMN pay a dividend?
Yes. Bloomin' Brands, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 786.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19