BLKB
Blackbaud, Inc. Technology - Software - Application Investor Relations →
Blackbaud, Inc. (BLKB) closed at $27.04 as of 2026-06-19, trading 59.1% below its 200-week moving average of $66.07. This places BLKB in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -57.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 21, BLKB is in oversold territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 3.3x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1094 weeks of data, BLKB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -2.1%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $1242 million, BLKB is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 16.5%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 418.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 35.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 12.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 21 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BLKB would have grown to $231, compared to $887 for the S&P 500. BLKB has returned 4.1% annualized vs 11.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 15.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BLKB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BLKB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying BLKB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -0.9% after 12 months (median -3.0%), compared to +3.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 40% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.9% vs +26.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BLKB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BLKB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BLKB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.19 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $30.68 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $33.64 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $37.24 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $41.71 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BLKB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BLKB has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +-2.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 1 | 5.2% | +3.9% | +71.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2009 | 53 | 51.5% | +1.9% | +60.2% |
| Oct 2012 | Dec 2012 | 9 | 7.3% | +65.2% | +32.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 2019 | 17 | 19.3% | +21.3% | -61.9% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 0.0% | -31.8% | -64.3% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 0.4% | -23.5% | -64.7% |
| Dec 2019 | Nov 2021 | 100 | 40.3% | -28.5% | -66.1% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 1 | 6.4% | -15.9% | -62.2% |
| Jan 2022 | Mar 2023 | 64 | 35.8% | -11.2% | -61.0% |
| Feb 2025 | Ongoing | 70+ | 59.1% | Ongoing | -60.4% |
| Average | 32 | — | +-2.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BLKB below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Blackbaud, Inc. (BLKB) is trading 59.1% below its 200-week moving average of $66.07. The current price is $27.04.
What is BLKB's 200-week moving average price?
Blackbaud, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $66.07 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BLKB drops below its 200-week moving average?
BLKB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -2.1%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is BLKB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BLKB as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 21 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 16.5%. Return on equity is 418.7%. Price-to-book is 35.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BLKB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21 years, $100 invested in BLKB would have grown to $231, compared to $887 for the S&P 500. That's 4.1% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. BLKB has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19