BLDR
Builders FirstSource, Inc. Industrials - Building Products & Equipment Investor Relations →
Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) closed at $80.59 as of 2026-06-19, trading 36.0% below its 200-week moving average of $126.00. This places BLDR in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -38.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1046 weeks of data, BLDR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 37 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BLDR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +77.4%.
With a market cap of $8.7 billion, BLDR is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 7.0%. The stock trades at 2.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 20.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 20.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BLDR would have grown to $471, compared to $851 for the S&P 500. BLDR has returned 8.0% annualized vs 11.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $4,386,500. Notably, these purchases occurred while BLDR is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -36% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BLDR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BLDR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying BLDR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +79.9% after 12 months (median +55.0%), compared to +28.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +176.3% vs +42.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BLDR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BLDR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BLDR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $63.21 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $69.80 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $77.92 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $88.17 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $101.53 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BLDR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BLDR has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +77.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2006 | Jan 2012 | 295 | 93.0% | -11.9% | +404.3% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 12.3% | +86.4% | +1113.7% |
| Oct 2018 | Apr 2019 | 29 | 24.2% | +57.9% | +515.7% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2.9% | +47.8% | +472.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 7 | 34.0% | +194.0% | +406.9% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 3.3% | +197.9% | +400.9% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 6 | 5.4% | -30.1% | -27.2% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 1 | 1.4% | N/A | -31.8% |
| Oct 2025 | Jan 2026 | 10 | 16.3% | N/A | -30.6% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 22+ | 44.0% | Ongoing | -34.1% |
| Average | 37 | — | +77.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BLDR below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) is trading 36.0% below its 200-week moving average of $126.00. The current price is $80.59.
What is BLDR's 200-week moving average price?
Builders FirstSource, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $126.00 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BLDR drops below its 200-week moving average?
BLDR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +77.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 37 weeks on average.
Is BLDR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BLDR as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 7.4%. Return on equity is 7.0%. Price-to-book is 2.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BLDR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 20.1 years, $100 invested in BLDR would have grown to $471, compared to $851 for the S&P 500. That's 8.0% annualized vs 11.3% for the index. BLDR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19