BLBD
Blue Bird Corporation Industrials - Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Investor Relations →
Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) closed at $59.21 as of 2026-02-02, trading 87.2% above its 200-week moving average of $31.62. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 60.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 572 weeks of data, BLBD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BLBD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.0%.
With a market cap of $1872 million, BLBD is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 57.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.9x book value.
BLBD passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 11.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BLBD would have grown to $607, compared to $395 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.7% vs 13.2% for the index — confirming BLBD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: BLBD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BLBD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying BLBD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.3% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +8.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.0% vs +27.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BLBD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
BLBD has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +9.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2015 | Mar 2015 | 3 | 7.4% | -10.7% | +507.3% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 2 | 2.7% | +42.4% | +477.7% |
| Nov 2015 | Mar 2016 | 19 | 16.6% | +44.6% | +465.0% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 4.7% | +84.3% | +485.1% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 1.3% | -32.4% | +247.1% |
| Feb 2020 | Jan 2021 | 45 | 52.5% | +36.0% | +231.2% |
| Feb 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 0.3% | -7.8% | +221.1% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 0.8% | -42.3% | +207.6% |
| Nov 2021 | Feb 2022 | 11 | 24.3% | -33.3% | +218.5% |
| Apr 2022 | Feb 2023 | 44 | 57.7% | +9.0% | +239.5% |
| Average | 13 | — | +9.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02