BLBD
Blue Bird Corporation Industrials - Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Investor Relations →
Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) closed at $53.43 as of 2026-03-20, trading 62.6% above its 200-week moving average of $32.85. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 63.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.25 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 578 weeks of data, BLBD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BLBD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.0%.
With a market cap of $1689 million, BLBD is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.5%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 57.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.2x book value.
BLBD passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 11.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BLBD would have grown to $548, compared to $372 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.5% vs 12.5% for the index — confirming BLBD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BLBD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BLBD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying BLBD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.3% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +8.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.0% vs +27.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BLBD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
BLBD has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +9.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2015 | Mar 2015 | 3 | 7.4% | -10.7% | +448.0% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 2 | 2.7% | +42.4% | +421.3% |
| Nov 2015 | Mar 2016 | 19 | 16.6% | +44.6% | +409.8% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 4.7% | +84.3% | +428.0% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 1.3% | -32.4% | +213.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Jan 2021 | 45 | 52.5% | +36.0% | +198.8% |
| Feb 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 0.3% | -7.8% | +189.8% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 0.8% | -42.3% | +177.6% |
| Nov 2021 | Feb 2022 | 11 | 24.3% | -33.3% | +187.4% |
| Apr 2022 | Feb 2023 | 44 | 57.7% | +9.0% | +206.4% |
| Average | 13 | — | +9.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BLBD below its 200-week moving average?
No. Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is currently 62.6% above its 200-week moving average of $32.85. It would need to fall to $32.85 to cross below the line.
What is BLBD's 200-week moving average price?
Blue Bird Corporation's 200-week moving average is $32.85 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BLBD drops below its 200-week moving average?
BLBD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is BLBD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BLBD as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Free cash flow yield is 7.5%. Return on equity is 57.5%. Price-to-book is 6.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BLBD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.2 years, $100 invested in BLBD would have grown to $548, compared to $372 for the S&P 500. That's 16.5% annualized vs 12.5% for the index. BLBD has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20