BKH
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Black Hills Corporation (BKH) closed at $70.45 as of 2026-09-18, trading 22.9% above its 200-week moving average of $57.34. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 24.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2747 weeks of data, BKH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BKH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.9%.
With a market cap of $5.4 billion, BKH is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 8.0%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 14.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BKH would have grown to $1586, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. BKH has returned 8.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BKH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BKH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying BKH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.2% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +17.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.4% vs +32.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BKH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. BKH currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $0.41 | $0.54 | +33.3% |
| 2026-05-05 | $1.84 | $1.79 | -2.7% |
| 2026-02-04 | $1.41 | $1.41 | — |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.40 | $0.45 | +13.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BKH's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BKH has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +14.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1974 | Jun 1975 | 58 | 28.1% | -13.1% | +21429.1% |
| Oct 1979 | Nov 1979 | 6 | 2.1% | +17.0% | +15277.9% |
| Mar 1980 | Apr 1980 | 5 | 8.8% | +0.5% | +14787.2% |
| May 1980 | Jun 1980 | 4 | 1.5% | -3.1% | +14477.0% |
| Nov 1980 | Dec 1980 | 7 | 1.3% | -14.3% | +14179.5% |
| Jan 1981 | May 1982 | 70 | 16.2% | -4.5% | +13964.2% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 1 | 0.7% | +55.9% | +14252.8% |
| Jan 1994 | Jan 1994 | 2 | 5.8% | +2.9% | +1772.4% |
| Jan 1994 | Jan 1995 | 52 | 18.2% | +15.8% | +1761.7% |
| Apr 1995 | Jul 1995 | 13 | 7.1% | +22.7% | +1602.5% |
| Jul 2002 | Mar 2003 | 35 | 24.6% | +18.3% | +565.6% |
| Apr 2003 | Apr 2003 | 1 | 0.8% | +16.2% | +529.4% |
| Dec 2003 | Dec 2003 | 2 | 1.7% | +11.4% | +493.8% |
| May 2004 | May 2004 | 3 | 4.7% | +23.2% | +464.8% |
| Jul 2004 | Oct 2004 | 14 | 9.3% | +49.9% | +497.3% |
| Dec 2004 | Dec 2004 | 1 | 0.2% | +30.6% | +455.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Mar 2010 | 89 | 54.1% | -24.4% | +340.6% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 3 | 2.5% | +12.0% | +344.0% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 1.5% | +12.9% | +349.1% |
| Jul 2015 | Oct 2015 | 11 | 12.6% | +62.1% | +161.6% |
| Nov 2015 | Dec 2015 | 5 | 4.0% | +42.9% | +143.9% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 7 | 3.2% | +37.9% | +87.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 17.5% | +34.6% | +76.1% |
| Apr 2020 | Nov 2020 | 29 | 15.1% | +15.4% | +45.7% |
| Nov 2020 | Mar 2021 | 13 | 4.6% | +12.8% | +46.7% |
| Oct 2022 | Nov 2022 | 5 | 5.6% | -22.2% | +29.0% |
| Feb 2023 | Apr 2023 | 8 | 6.9% | -16.0% | +29.0% |
| May 2023 | Aug 2024 | 67 | 21.7% | -5.6% | +28.7% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 1.4% | +14.5% | +32.1% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 6 | 4.8% | +21.6% | +30.6% |
| Jun 2025 | Jul 2025 | 8 | 2.6% | +32.5% | +29.5% |
| Average | 17 | — | +14.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BKH below its 200-week moving average?
No. Black Hills Corporation (BKH) is currently 22.9% above its 200-week moving average of $57.34. It would need to fall to $57.34 to cross below the line.
What is BKH's 200-week moving average price?
Black Hills Corporation's 200-week moving average is $57.34 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BKH drops below its 200-week moving average?
BKH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is BKH a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BKH as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 8.0%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BKH compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in BKH would have grown to $1586, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 8.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. BKH has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BKH pay a dividend?
Yes. Black Hills Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 399.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18