BJRI
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Restaurants Investor Relations →
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) closed at $54.55 as of 2026-06-19, trading 59.8% above its 200-week moving average of $34.14. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 54.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, BJRI is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.27 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1501 weeks of data, BJRI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -2.3%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $1146 million, BJRI is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.7%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 11.9%. The stock trades at 3.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BJRI would have grown to $2718, compared to $1303 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.1% vs 9.3% for the index — confirming BJRI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BJRI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BJRI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying BJRI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.1% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +10.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 45% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +33.0% vs +23.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BJRI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BJRI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BJRI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $31.16 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $33.92 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $37.21 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $41.21 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $46.18 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BJRI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BJRI has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +-2.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1997 | Jul 2000 | 147 | 45.8% | -42.7% | +2292.0% |
| Jul 2000 | Jul 2000 | 1 | 1.5% | +158.5% | +2703.1% |
| Jun 2007 | Jun 2007 | 1 | 1.3% | -40.7% | +203.9% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2009 | 108 | 60.0% | -52.5% | +205.4% |
| Dec 2012 | Dec 2012 | 1 | 1.0% | -6.9% | +73.3% |
| Jan 2013 | Apr 2013 | 14 | 9.7% | -12.5% | +69.1% |
| Jul 2013 | Oct 2014 | 65 | 30.3% | -2.5% | +56.3% |
| Jul 2016 | Aug 2016 | 1 | 0.3% | -9.9% | +44.3% |
| Sep 2016 | Dec 2016 | 13 | 12.2% | -26.2% | +46.8% |
| Dec 2016 | Mar 2017 | 14 | 11.4% | -6.1% | +44.3% |
| Jun 2017 | Feb 2018 | 36 | 29.9% | +53.7% | +44.9% |
| May 2019 | Jan 2021 | 84 | 80.9% | -47.6% | +31.6% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 8 | 11.2% | -42.2% | +34.4% |
| Oct 2021 | Jul 2023 | 94 | 46.8% | -36.9% | +36.9% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 19 | 33.0% | -15.9% | +61.8% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 2 | 2.9% | +13.0% | +68.1% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 5 | 5.5% | -2.7% | +66.4% |
| Jun 2024 | Jun 2024 | 1 | 1.1% | +29.2% | +59.8% |
| Jul 2024 | Oct 2024 | 12 | 18.1% | +23.6% | +73.1% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 1.5% | -0.1% | +60.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2025 | 1 | 1.0% | +3.3% | +68.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 2.6% | +13.6% | +72.9% |
| Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 | 6 | 7.6% | N/A | +76.4% |
| Average | 28 | — | +-2.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BJRI below its 200-week moving average?
No. BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) is currently 59.8% above its 200-week moving average of $34.14. It would need to fall to $34.14 to cross below the line.
What is BJRI's 200-week moving average price?
BJ's Restaurants, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $34.14 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BJRI drops below its 200-week moving average?
BJRI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -2.3%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is BJRI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BJRI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 80 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 6.7%. Return on equity is 11.9%. Price-to-book is 3.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BJRI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.8 years, $100 invested in BJRI would have grown to $2718, compared to $1303 for the S&P 500. That's 12.1% annualized vs 9.3% for the index. BJRI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19