BIRK
Birkenstock Holding plc Consumer Discretionary - Footwear Investor Relations →
Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) closed at $46.11 as of 2026-06-19, trading 2.8% below its 200-week moving average of $47.42. This places BIRK in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 2.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 60, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 92 weeks of data, BIRK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -9.7%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $8.5 billion, BIRK is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.2%. Return on equity stands at 12.5%. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Over the past 1.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BIRK would have grown to $94, compared to $133 for the S&P 500. BIRK has returned -3.1% annualized vs 16.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 22.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BIRK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BIRK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying BIRK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -10.2% after 12 months (median -6.0%), compared to +19.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BIRK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BIRK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BIRK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-13.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.26 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $31.21 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $34.84 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $39.43 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $45.41 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BIRK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BIRK has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +-9.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2024 | Oct 2024 | 3 | 2.1% | -0.4% | -3.6% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 4 | 6.6% | -12.9% | +0.6% |
| Feb 2025 | Apr 2025 | 8 | 12.7% | -15.8% | -6.8% |
| Jun 2025 | Aug 2025 | 8 | 5.0% | N/A | -6.7% |
| Sep 2025 | Ongoing | 41+ | 34.4% | Ongoing | -0.3% |
| Average | 13 | — | +-9.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BIRK below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) is trading 2.8% below its 200-week moving average of $47.42. The current price is $46.11.
What is BIRK's 200-week moving average price?
Birkenstock Holding plc's 200-week moving average is $47.42 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BIRK drops below its 200-week moving average?
BIRK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -9.7%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is BIRK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BIRK as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 60. Free cash flow yield is 2.2%. Return on equity is 12.5%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BIRK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 1.8 years, $100 invested in BIRK would have grown to $94, compared to $133 for the S&P 500. That's -3.1% annualized vs 16.9% for the index. BIRK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19