BILI
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Bilibili Inc. (BILI) closed at $17.20 as of 2026-06-19, trading 9.4% below its 200-week moving average of $18.99. This places BILI in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -6.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 24, BILI is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.72 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 381 weeks of data, BILI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 41 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BILI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +125.1%.
With a market cap of $7.2 billion, BILI is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 9.4%. The stock trades at 3.1x book value.
Share count has increased 5.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 7.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BILI would have grown to $91, compared to $296 for the S&P 500. BILI has returned -1.3% annualized vs 15.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BILI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BILI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying BILI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +127.2% after 12 months (median +196.0%), compared to +8.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +370.2% vs +43.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BILI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BILI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BILI has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +125.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 4 | 8.1% | +135.2% | +22.4% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 6 | 5.9% | +196.1% | +16.8% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 4 | 5.7% | +194.5% | +20.0% |
| Jan 2022 | Jul 2025 | 184 | 80.1% | -25.5% | -55.3% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 6+ | 9.9% | Ongoing | -9.8% |
| Average | 41 | — | +125.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BILI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Bilibili Inc. (BILI) is trading 9.4% below its 200-week moving average of $18.99. The current price is $17.20.
What is BILI's 200-week moving average price?
Bilibili Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $18.99 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BILI drops below its 200-week moving average?
BILI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +125.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 41 weeks on average.
Is BILI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BILI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 24 (oversold). Return on equity is 9.4%. Price-to-book is 3.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BILI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 7.3 years, $100 invested in BILI would have grown to $91, compared to $296 for the S&P 500. That's -1.3% annualized vs 15.9% for the index. BILI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19