BHP
BHP Group Limited Materials - Mining Investor Relations →
BHP Group Limited (BHP) closed at $86.27 as of 2026-09-18, trading 52.5% above its 200-week moving average of $56.57. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 54.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.05 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, BHP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BHP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.1%.
With a market cap of $219.3 billion, BHP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.4%. Return on equity stands at 24.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.3x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BHP would have grown to $5800, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming BHP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -0.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BHP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BHP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying BHP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.2% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +11.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.9% vs +22.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BHP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BHP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BHP has crossed below its 200-week MA 33 times with an average 1-year return of +16.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 5 | 11.1% | -41.8% | +15784.8% |
| Apr 1981 | Nov 1983 | 134 | 56.9% | -51.5% | +14149.6% |
| May 1984 | Nov 1984 | 25 | 17.9% | +6.5% | +21432.7% |
| Dec 1984 | Mar 1985 | 15 | 10.3% | +48.9% | +23649.3% |
| Apr 1985 | Apr 1985 | 3 | 3.9% | +58.6% | +25534.2% |
| Oct 1992 | Dec 1992 | 8 | 8.1% | +49.8% | +6434.9% |
| Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | 1.8% | -32.8% | +3258.9% |
| Aug 1997 | Apr 1999 | 87 | 41.0% | -42.2% | +3200.4% |
| May 1999 | Jun 1999 | 2 | 4.7% | -1.8% | +3636.0% |
| Oct 1999 | Nov 1999 | 2 | 2.3% | -4.6% | +3569.6% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 4 | 4.3% | +3.8% | +3522.5% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2000 | 1 | 2.0% | +9.7% | +3621.9% |
| May 2000 | Jun 2000 | 5 | 5.3% | +21.4% | +3763.3% |
| Oct 2000 | Nov 2000 | 7 | 3.3% | -2.5% | +3626.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 3 | 13.9% | +58.7% | +4308.2% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 1 | 0.6% | +47.0% | +3699.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Apr 2009 | 29 | 38.7% | +91.0% | +554.5% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 1 | 0.9% | +6.6% | +238.0% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 1.9% | +10.4% | +238.7% |
| May 2012 | Jul 2012 | 11 | 9.0% | +11.9% | +254.4% |
| Aug 2012 | Sep 2012 | 1 | 3.5% | -0.6% | +236.6% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 1 | 0.2% | +7.3% | +216.4% |
| Mar 2013 | Oct 2013 | 31 | 21.6% | -3.7% | +207.6% |
| Nov 2013 | Mar 2014 | 19 | 10.9% | -13.9% | +204.7% |
| Apr 2014 | Jun 2014 | 9 | 4.7% | -22.3% | +195.8% |
| Aug 2014 | Jul 2017 | 153 | 60.9% | -45.1% | +196.6% |
| Aug 2017 | Aug 2017 | 1 | 0.1% | +27.4% | +329.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 19.3% | +127.5% | +316.2% |
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 2 | 2.7% | +99.9% | +265.3% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 2.3% | +11.0% | +83.5% |
| Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 0.1% | +8.7% | +76.9% |
| Dec 2024 | Jul 2025 | 31 | 17.5% | +16.8% | +78.4% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 1.1% | +69.8% | +77.2% |
| Average | 18 | — | +16.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BHP below its 200-week moving average?
No. BHP Group Limited (BHP) is currently 52.5% above its 200-week moving average of $56.57. It would need to fall to $56.57 to cross below the line.
What is BHP's 200-week moving average price?
BHP Group Limited's 200-week moving average is $56.57 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BHP drops below its 200-week moving average?
BHP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is BHP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BHP as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow yield is 4.4%. Return on equity is 24.0%. Price-to-book is 4.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BHP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in BHP would have grown to $5800, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 12.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. BHP has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BHP pay a dividend?
Yes. BHP Group Limited currently pays a dividend yield of 457.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18