BHP
BHP Group Limited Materials - Mining Investor Relations →
BHP Group Limited (BHP) closed at $69.64 as of 2026-02-02, trading 31.4% above its 200-week moving average of $53.00. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 29.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 79, BHP is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2346 weeks of data, BHP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BHP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.3%.
With a market cap of $178.9 billion, BHP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 22.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.4x book value.
BHP passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BHP would have grown to $4493, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.2% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming BHP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -29.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: BHP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BHP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying BHP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.3% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +11.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 54% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.7% vs +21.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BHP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
BHP has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +14.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 5 | 11.1% | -41.8% | +12206.5% |
| Apr 1981 | Nov 1983 | 134 | 56.9% | -51.5% | +10939.7% |
| May 1984 | Nov 1984 | 25 | 17.9% | +6.5% | +16582.2% |
| Dec 1984 | Mar 1985 | 15 | 10.3% | +48.9% | +18299.5% |
| Apr 1985 | Apr 1985 | 3 | 3.9% | +58.6% | +19759.8% |
| Oct 1992 | Dec 1992 | 8 | 8.1% | +49.8% | +4962.8% |
| Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | 1.7% | -32.8% | +2502.3% |
| Aug 1997 | Apr 1999 | 87 | 41.0% | -42.2% | +2457.0% |
| May 1999 | Jun 1999 | 4 | 4.6% | -7.0% | +2684.8% |
| Oct 1999 | Nov 1999 | 2 | 3.8% | -6.1% | +2743.0% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 4 | 4.3% | +3.8% | +2706.5% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2000 | 1 | 2.0% | +9.7% | +2783.5% |
| May 2000 | Jun 2000 | 5 | 5.2% | +21.4% | +2893.0% |
| Oct 2000 | Nov 2000 | 7 | 4.8% | -2.5% | +2787.3% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 3 | 13.9% | +58.7% | +3315.2% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 1 | 0.5% | +47.0% | +2843.7% |
| Oct 2008 | Apr 2009 | 29 | 38.6% | +91.0% | +407.0% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 1 | 0.9% | +6.6% | +161.9% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 1.9% | +10.4% | +162.4% |
| May 2012 | Jul 2012 | 11 | 8.9% | +11.9% | +174.6% |
| Aug 2012 | Sep 2012 | 2 | 3.5% | -0.6% | +160.7% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 1 | 0.2% | +7.3% | +145.1% |
| Mar 2013 | Oct 2013 | 31 | 21.6% | -3.7% | +138.3% |
| Nov 2013 | Mar 2014 | 19 | 10.9% | -13.9% | +136.1% |
| May 2014 | Jun 2014 | 8 | 4.7% | -23.6% | +130.4% |
| Aug 2014 | Jul 2017 | 153 | 60.9% | -45.1% | +129.8% |
| Aug 2017 | Aug 2017 | 1 | 0.0% | +27.4% | +232.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 19.2% | +127.5% | +222.4% |
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 2 | 2.5% | +99.9% | +183.0% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 2.2% | +11.0% | +42.2% |
| Dec 2024 | Jul 2025 | 31 | 17.4% | +16.8% | +38.2% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 1.0% | N/A | +37.3% |
| Average | 19 | — | +14.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02