BGS
B&G Foods, Inc. Consumer Defensive - Packaged Foods Investor Relations →
B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS) closed at $3.53 as of 2026-07-31, trading 45.5% below its 200-week moving average of $6.48. This places BGS in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -46.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 21, BGS is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 953 weeks of data, BGS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 68 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -0.4%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $287 million, BGS is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 67.4%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -16.7%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
Share count has increased 11.6% over three years, indicating dilution. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 18.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BGS would have grown to $141, compared to $755 for the S&P 500. BGS has returned 1.9% annualized vs 11.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BGS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BGS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying BGS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -9.7% after 12 months (median -14.0%), compared to +2.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +3.0% vs +24.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BGS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BGS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BGS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-10.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $3.48 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $4.20 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $5.28 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $7.10 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $10.86 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BGS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BGS has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +-0.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2008 | Jun 2009 | 59 | 73.6% | -25.0% | +40.6% |
| Jul 2009 | Jul 2009 | 1 | 3.4% | +56.6% | +48.6% |
| Jul 2017 | Oct 2017 | 12 | 9.5% | +3.2% | -76.0% |
| Jan 2018 | Jul 2020 | 130 | 49.8% | -2.6% | -76.7% |
| May 2022 | Jun 2022 | 4 | 6.2% | -34.4% | -74.6% |
| Aug 2022 | Ongoing | 205+ | 68.6% | Ongoing | -73.9% |
| Average | 68 | — | +-0.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BGS below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS) is trading 45.5% below its 200-week moving average of $6.48. The current price is $3.53.
What is BGS's 200-week moving average price?
B&G Foods, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $6.48 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BGS drops below its 200-week moving average?
BGS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -0.4%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 68 weeks on average.
Is BGS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BGS as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 21 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 67.4%. Return on equity is -16.7%. Price-to-book is 0.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BGS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.3 years, $100 invested in BGS would have grown to $141, compared to $755 for the S&P 500. That's 1.9% annualized vs 11.7% for the index. BGS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BGS pay a dividend?
Yes. B&G Foods, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1053.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31