BGS
B&G Foods, Inc. Consumer Defensive - Packaged Foods Investor Relations →
B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS) closed at $2.88 as of 2026-09-18, trading 53.9% below its 200-week moving average of $6.24. This places BGS in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -49.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 23, BGS is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 960 weeks of data, BGS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 70 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -0.4%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $234 million, BGS is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 74.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -15.8%. The stock trades at 0.6x book value.
Share count has increased 11.6% over three years, indicating dilution. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 18.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BGS would have grown to $115, compared to $772 for the S&P 500. BGS has returned 0.7% annualized vs 11.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BGS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BGS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying BGS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -9.7% after 12 months (median -14.0%), compared to +2.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +3.0% vs +24.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BGS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BGS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BGS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-11.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $3.03 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $3.31 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $3.64 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $4.05 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $4.56 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | $0.06 | $0.06 | +6.8% |
| 2026-03-03 | $0.30 | $0.28 | -7.0% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.11 | $0.15 | +35.6% |
| 2025-08-04 | $0.06 | $0.04 | -32.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BGS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BGS has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +-0.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2008 | Jun 2009 | 59 | 73.6% | -25.0% | +14.7% |
| Jul 2009 | Jul 2009 | 1 | 3.4% | +56.6% | +21.2% |
| Jul 2017 | Oct 2017 | 12 | 9.5% | +3.2% | -80.4% |
| Jan 2018 | Jul 2020 | 130 | 49.8% | -2.6% | -81.0% |
| May 2022 | Jun 2022 | 4 | 6.2% | -34.4% | -79.3% |
| Aug 2022 | Ongoing | 212+ | 68.6% | Ongoing | -78.7% |
| Average | 70 | — | +-0.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BGS below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS) is trading 53.9% below its 200-week moving average of $6.24. The current price is $2.88.
What is BGS's 200-week moving average price?
B&G Foods, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $6.24 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BGS drops below its 200-week moving average?
BGS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -0.4%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 70 weeks on average.
Is BGS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BGS as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 23 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 74.6%. Return on equity is -15.8%. Price-to-book is 0.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BGS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.5 years, $100 invested in BGS would have grown to $115, compared to $772 for the S&P 500. That's 0.7% annualized vs 11.7% for the index. BGS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BGS pay a dividend?
Yes. B&G Foods, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1250.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18