BGC

BGC Group, Inc. Financial Services - Capital Markets Investor Relations →

NO
51.9% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 52.1% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Signal Threshold $8.04
14-Week RSI 54
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 2.1x — Surging
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.00

BGC Group, Inc. (BGC) closed at $12.22 as of 2026-09-18, trading 51.9% above its 200-week moving average of $8.04. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 52.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.

A big jump in activity this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.

Over the past 1349 weeks of data, BGC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 46 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BGC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.3%.

With a market cap of $5.8 billion, BGC is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 15.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 5.2x book value.

Share count has increased 27.1% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 25.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BGC would have grown to $383, compared to $914 for the S&P 500. BGC has returned 5.3% annualized vs 8.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $5,534,639.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 25.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: BGC vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After BGC Crosses Below the Line?

Across 14 historical episodes, buying BGC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.4% after 12 months (median +36.0%), compared to +15.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +48.7% vs +30.9% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BGC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BGC would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -0.49σ
Current FCF Yield 9.84%
Baseline Yield 10.93%
Historical σ 0.54pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where BGC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$10.76Unusually cheap — analysis point
Value+1σ$11.30Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$11.90Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$12.57Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$13.32Unusually expensive — analysis point

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Recent Earnings

DateEPS Est.EPS ActualSurprise
2026-07-30$0.34$0.35+4.5%
2026-05-07$0.41$0.41+1.2%
2026-02-12$0.29$0.31+6.9%
2025-11-06$0.28$0.29+3.6%
Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 24 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

13 / 13 weeks minimum

the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from BGC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

⚠ Earnings quality deteriorating — net income is outrunning free cash flow vs this company's own norm. Cheapness signals here deserve extra scrutiny.
Yield Dislocation -0.79σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -1.16σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative -0.94σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -10.6pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity 83th TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History N/A Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Deteriorating Accrual gap trend (+3.1pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

Insider Buying Activity

1 conviction buy in the past 12 months (purchases over $500K with meaningful position increases).

DateInsiderTitleValueSharesPosition +%
2025-10-06LUTNICK BRANDONDirector and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security$5,534,639600,938+43.3%

Historical Touches

BGC has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +22.3% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Nov 2000Aug 200314382.2%-68.1%+177.9%
Jun 2004Nov 200717849.8%-31.1%+308.6%
May 2008Mar 20109677.6%-62.8%+485.4%
May 2010May 201033.2%+64.5%+668.8%
Jun 2010Sep 20101514.5%+52.8%+685.9%
Jul 2012Sep 201267.5%+35.7%+635.5%
Sep 2012Apr 20132732.8%+28.1%+621.1%
Dec 2018Dec 20195324.3%+5.1%+140.6%
Dec 2019Apr 20216662.0%-29.2%+127.0%
Nov 2021Nov 20225431.6%-14.2%+174.2%
Dec 2022Jan 2023611.6%+55.7%+216.4%
Feb 2023Feb 202311.1%+70.3%+200.5%
May 2023May 202322.6%+98.6%+201.4%
May 2023Jun 202310.3%+107.4%+197.8%
Average46+22.3%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is BGC below its 200-week moving average?

No. BGC Group, Inc. (BGC) is currently 51.9% above its 200-week moving average of $8.04. It would need to fall to $8.04 to cross below the line.

What is BGC's 200-week moving average price?

BGC Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $8.04 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when BGC drops below its 200-week moving average?

BGC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +22.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 46 weeks on average.

Is BGC a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about BGC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 54. Return on equity is 15.9%. Price-to-book is 5.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does BGC compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 25.9 years, $100 invested in BGC would have grown to $383, compared to $914 for the S&P 500. That's 5.3% annualized vs 8.9% for the index. BGC has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does BGC pay a dividend?

Yes. BGC Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 67.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-09-18