BG
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Bunge Global SA (BG) closed at $115.58 as of 2026-09-18, trading 24.5% above its 200-week moving average of $92.85. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 32.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 43, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.5x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1263 weeks of data, BG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +0.5%.
With a market cap of $22.2 billion, BG is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 7.2%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 29.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 24.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BG would have grown to $950, compared to $1298 for the S&P 500. BG has returned 9.7% annualized vs 11.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $689,050.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying BG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.6% after 12 months (median -3.0%), compared to +12.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 38% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +7.6% vs +24.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. BG currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $1.94 | $2.00 | +2.9% |
| 2026-04-29 | $0.87 | $1.83 | +109.4% |
| 2026-02-04 | $1.82 | $1.99 | +9.6% |
| 2025-11-05 | $1.97 | $2.27 | +15.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BG has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +0.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 3 | 5.8% | +51.9% | +877.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Feb 2011 | 126 | 52.9% | -13.0% | +143.0% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 3 | 5.7% | -2.6% | +146.9% |
| Jun 2011 | Jul 2011 | 4 | 6.5% | -10.5% | +152.8% |
| Jul 2011 | Feb 2012 | 28 | 16.9% | -3.5% | +147.3% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 3 | 1.8% | +21.4% | +187.7% |
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 6 | 5.2% | -7.5% | +124.2% |
| Oct 2015 | Dec 2016 | 58 | 33.4% | -13.2% | +118.1% |
| Dec 2016 | Feb 2017 | 8 | 5.2% | -4.2% | +115.7% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 3 | 3.5% | +4.0% | +120.2% |
| Sep 2017 | Jan 2018 | 17 | 7.9% | -3.8% | +112.2% |
| Apr 2018 | Oct 2020 | 130 | 47.3% | -25.0% | +111.8% |
| Oct 2024 | Oct 2025 | 52 | 24.0% | +12.7% | +37.0% |
| Dec 2025 | Dec 2025 | 1 | 0.4% | N/A | +32.1% |
| Average | 32 | — | +0.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Bunge Global SA (BG) is currently 24.5% above its 200-week moving average of $92.85. It would need to fall to $92.85 to cross below the line.
What is BG's 200-week moving average price?
Bunge Global SA's 200-week moving average is $92.85 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BG drops below its 200-week moving average?
BG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +0.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is BG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BG as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 43. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 7.2%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 24.2 years, $100 invested in BG would have grown to $950, compared to $1298 for the S&P 500. That's 9.7% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. BG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BG pay a dividend?
Yes. Bunge Global SA currently pays a dividend yield of 241.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18