BDC
Belden Inc. Technology - Communication Equipment Investor Relations →
Belden Inc. (BDC) closed at $110.92 as of 2026-09-18, trading 8.9% above its 200-week moving average of $101.85. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 20.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.02 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1664 weeks of data, BDC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BDC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.0%.
With a market cap of $4.3 billion, BDC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.3%. Return on equity stands at 18.6%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 32 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BDC would have grown to $1107, compared to $2806 for the S&P 500. BDC has returned 7.8% annualized vs 11.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 7.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BDC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BDC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying BDC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.4% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +13.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.5% vs +24.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BDC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BDC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BDC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $100.17 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $107.69 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $116.43 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $126.72 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $139.01 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $2.02 | $2.34 | +15.7% |
| 2026-04-30 | $1.70 | $1.77 | +3.9% |
| 2026-02-12 | $1.95 | $2.08 | +6.4% |
| 2025-10-30 | $1.92 | $1.97 | +2.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BDC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BDC has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +19.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1997 | May 1997 | 2 | 10.6% | +107.8% | +623.5% |
| Aug 1998 | Nov 1998 | 15 | 44.6% | +26.5% | +388.7% |
| Dec 1998 | Aug 1999 | 33 | 45.5% | +24.3% | +398.6% |
| Oct 1999 | Nov 1999 | 4 | 9.4% | +69.7% | +362.7% |
| Mar 2001 | Sep 2004 | 183 | 68.5% | -15.4% | +316.9% |
| Oct 2004 | Oct 2004 | 1 | 0.7% | -7.0% | +489.7% |
| Apr 2005 | May 2005 | 4 | 6.8% | +72.2% | +566.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 3 | 11.1% | -45.6% | +287.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2010 | 114 | 75.2% | -32.7% | +255.0% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 4.6% | +33.3% | +330.5% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 3 | 7.0% | +44.6% | +330.7% |
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2015 | 12 | 19.8% | +30.3% | +105.7% |
| Dec 2015 | Mar 2016 | 16 | 34.6% | +61.7% | +134.5% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 2.7% | +19.3% | +91.0% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 3 | 4.8% | +25.2% | +87.0% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 2 | 1.3% | +20.3% | +79.4% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 2 | 6.0% | +23.4% | +75.8% |
| Mar 2017 | Apr 2017 | 5 | 4.7% | -3.8% | +69.6% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 1 | 0.5% | -15.4% | +67.9% |
| Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | 4.1% | -19.7% | +68.2% |
| Mar 2018 | Aug 2018 | 22 | 21.6% | -16.6% | +76.4% |
| Oct 2018 | Aug 2021 | 148 | 55.6% | -22.1% | +69.5% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 2 | 2.0% | +56.8% | +126.1% |
| Average | 25 | — | +19.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BDC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Belden Inc. (BDC) is currently 8.9% above its 200-week moving average of $101.85. It would need to fall to $101.85 to cross below the line.
What is BDC's 200-week moving average price?
Belden Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $101.85 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BDC drops below its 200-week moving average?
BDC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is BDC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BDC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 2.3%. Return on equity is 18.6%. Price-to-book is 3.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BDC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32 years, $100 invested in BDC would have grown to $1107, compared to $2806 for the S&P 500. That's 7.8% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. BDC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BDC pay a dividend?
Yes. Belden Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 18.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18