BCO
The Brink's Company Industrials - Security & Protection Services Investor Relations →
The Brink's Company (BCO) closed at $106.12 as of 2026-09-18, trading 17.3% above its 200-week moving average of $90.46. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 24.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1554 weeks of data, BCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BCO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.1%.
With a market cap of $4.4 billion, BCO is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 46.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 14.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 29.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BCO would have grown to $870, compared to $1716 for the S&P 500. BCO has returned 7.5% annualized vs 10.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BCO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BCO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying BCO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.9% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +18.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +24.2% vs +36.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BCO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BCO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BCO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $92.74 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $99.22 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $106.67 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $115.34 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $125.54 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $2.04 | $2.13 | +4.4% |
| 2026-05-06 | $1.59 | $1.80 | +13.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | $2.47 | $2.54 | +2.7% |
| 2025-11-05 | $2.08 | $2.08 | -0.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BCO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BCO has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +5.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1996 | Dec 1996 | 3 | 10.4% | +55.4% | +924.7% |
| Feb 1997 | Mar 1997 | 6 | 6.4% | +42.9% | +847.7% |
| Oct 1998 | Feb 2002 | 173 | 61.4% | -35.3% | +745.9% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 3 | 8.3% | -27.1% | +1053.2% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 0.1% | -12.3% | +1067.2% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2003 | 52 | 36.6% | +2.9% | +1160.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Apr 2009 | 26 | 33.7% | -0.8% | +404.1% |
| Apr 2009 | Jan 2011 | 92 | 36.9% | -0.6% | +383.1% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 3 | 3.0% | -20.3% | +357.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 20.0% | -11.6% | +390.6% |
| Oct 2011 | Jan 2012 | 10 | 17.7% | -2.1% | +365.4% |
| Jan 2012 | Sep 2012 | 34 | 15.4% | +14.6% | +410.7% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 1 | 0.4% | +3.4% | +393.3% |
| Apr 2014 | May 2014 | 5 | 5.7% | +7.6% | +376.9% |
| Sep 2014 | Feb 2015 | 23 | 20.8% | +5.0% | +356.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 45.0% | +30.9% | +79.8% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 2.5% | +3.7% | +65.9% |
| Sep 2021 | Jan 2022 | 18 | 16.1% | -19.1% | +73.4% |
| Feb 2022 | Feb 2023 | 53 | 27.7% | -6.3% | +61.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | 5 | 7.0% | +32.8% | +71.5% |
| Apr 2023 | May 2023 | 2 | 3.2% | +42.9% | +75.1% |
| Average | 27 | — | +5.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BCO below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Brink's Company (BCO) is currently 17.3% above its 200-week moving average of $90.46. It would need to fall to $90.46 to cross below the line.
What is BCO's 200-week moving average price?
The Brink's Company's 200-week moving average is $90.46 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BCO drops below its 200-week moving average?
BCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is BCO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BCO as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 54. Free cash flow yield is 8.9%. Return on equity is 46.2%. Price-to-book is 14.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BCO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.8 years, $100 invested in BCO would have grown to $870, compared to $1716 for the S&P 500. That's 7.5% annualized vs 10.0% for the index. BCO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BCO pay a dividend?
Yes. The Brink's Company currently pays a dividend yield of 96.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18