BCML
BayCom Corp Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
BayCom Corp (BCML) closed at $30.10 as of 2026-09-18, trading 31.1% above its 200-week moving average of $22.96. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 31.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 41, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.19 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1040 weeks of data, BCML has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BCML at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.4%.
With a market cap of $329 million, BCML is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 3.9%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 20 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BCML would have grown to $286, compared to $797 for the S&P 500. BCML has returned 5.4% annualized vs 10.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 6 open-market purchases totaling $1,614,303. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -8.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BCML vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BCML Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying BCML when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.5% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +19.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.2% vs +27.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BCML crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BCML would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BCML's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.45 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $30.47 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $32.81 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $35.53 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $38.75 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $0.64 | $0.29 | -54.2% |
| 2026-04-23 | $0.60 | $0.75 | +25.0% |
| 2026-01-22 | $0.65 | $0.63 | -3.1% |
| 2025-10-23 | $0.52 | $0.46 | -11.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BCML's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BCML has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +5.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2006 | Feb 2007 | 18 | 7.4% | -9.6% | +192.6% |
| Mar 2007 | Apr 2007 | 4 | 2.4% | -17.2% | +175.8% |
| May 2007 | May 2010 | 155 | 36.9% | -19.1% | +186.4% |
| Jul 2010 | Apr 2012 | 92 | 26.9% | -23.9% | +265.7% |
| May 2012 | Jul 2012 | 7 | 3.7% | +5.0% | +342.7% |
| Jul 2012 | Aug 2012 | 1 | 1.2% | +14.7% | +333.6% |
| Aug 2012 | Aug 2012 | 1 | 0.8% | +15.4% | +331.4% |
| Sep 2012 | Oct 2012 | 6 | 1.2% | +19.9% | +331.4% |
| Apr 2013 | May 2013 | 4 | 2.8% | +29.4% | +325.9% |
| Jun 2013 | Jul 2013 | 5 | 6.4% | +38.4% | +339.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Jan 2022 | 97 | 48.6% | -0.8% | +78.4% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 8 | 5.9% | +6.7% | +79.1% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 18 | 15.6% | +11.7% | +86.8% |
| Average | 32 | — | +5.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BCML below its 200-week moving average?
No. BayCom Corp (BCML) is currently 31.1% above its 200-week moving average of $22.96. It would need to fall to $22.96 to cross below the line.
What is BCML's 200-week moving average price?
BayCom Corp's 200-week moving average is $22.96 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BCML drops below its 200-week moving average?
BCML has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is BCML a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BCML as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 41. Return on equity is 3.9%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BCML compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 20 years, $100 invested in BCML would have grown to $286, compared to $797 for the S&P 500. That's 5.4% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. BCML has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BCML pay a dividend?
Yes. BayCom Corp currently pays a dividend yield of 396.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18