BCML

BayCom Corp Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →

NO
31.1% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 31.5% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Signal Threshold $22.96
14-Week RSI 41
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.2x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.19

BayCom Corp (BCML) closed at $30.10 as of 2026-09-18, trading 31.1% above its 200-week moving average of $22.96. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 31.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 41, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.19 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1040 weeks of data, BCML has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BCML at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.4%.

With a market cap of $329 million, BCML is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 3.9%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.2% over the past three years.

Over the past 20 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BCML would have grown to $286, compared to $797 for the S&P 500. BCML has returned 5.4% annualized vs 10.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 6 open-market purchases totaling $1,614,303. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -8.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: BCML vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After BCML Crosses Below the Line?

Across 13 historical episodes, buying BCML when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.5% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +19.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.2% vs +27.0% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BCML crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BCML would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score +1.18σ
Current FCF Yield 8.08%
Baseline Yield 7.34%
Historical σ 0.57pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where BCML's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$28.45Unusually cheap — analysis point
Value+1σ$30.47Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$32.81Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$35.53Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$38.75Unusually expensive — analysis point

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Recent Earnings

DateEPS Est.EPS ActualSurprise
2026-07-23$0.64$0.29-54.2%
2026-04-23$0.60$0.75+25.0%
2026-01-22$0.65$0.63-3.1%
2025-10-23$0.52$0.46-11.0%
Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 24 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

13 / 13 weeks minimum

the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from BCML's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

2 stacked signals: yield, insider
Yield Dislocation +2.21σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -0.84σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative +0.58σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration +3.2pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity 93th TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History N/A Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Stable Accrual gap trend (+1.0pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

Insider Buying Activity

1 conviction buy in the past 12 months (purchases over $500K with meaningful position increases). 🔥 Cluster Buy Detected

DateInsiderTitleValueSharesPosition +%
2026-05-06BLACK WILLIAM JOfficer and Director$998,23533,082+3318.2%

Historical Touches

BCML has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +5.4% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Oct 2006Feb 2007187.4%-9.6%+192.6%
Mar 2007Apr 200742.4%-17.2%+175.8%
May 2007May 201015536.9%-19.1%+186.4%
Jul 2010Apr 20129226.9%-23.9%+265.7%
May 2012Jul 201273.7%+5.0%+342.7%
Jul 2012Aug 201211.2%+14.7%+333.6%
Aug 2012Aug 201210.8%+15.4%+331.4%
Sep 2012Oct 201261.2%+19.9%+331.4%
Apr 2013May 201342.8%+29.4%+325.9%
Jun 2013Jul 201356.4%+38.4%+339.3%
Mar 2020Jan 20229748.6%-0.8%+78.4%
Aug 2022Oct 202285.9%+6.7%+79.1%
Mar 2023Jul 20231815.6%+11.7%+86.8%
Average32+5.4%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is BCML below its 200-week moving average?

No. BayCom Corp (BCML) is currently 31.1% above its 200-week moving average of $22.96. It would need to fall to $22.96 to cross below the line.

What is BCML's 200-week moving average price?

BayCom Corp's 200-week moving average is $22.96 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when BCML drops below its 200-week moving average?

BCML has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.

Is BCML a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about BCML as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 41. Return on equity is 3.9%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does BCML compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 20 years, $100 invested in BCML would have grown to $286, compared to $797 for the S&P 500. That's 5.4% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. BCML has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does BCML pay a dividend?

Yes. BayCom Corp currently pays a dividend yield of 396.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-09-18