BCC
Boise Cascade Company Basic Materials - Lumber & Wood Production Investor Relations →
Boise Cascade Company (BCC) closed at $76.38 as of 2026-07-31, trading 18.1% below its 200-week moving average of $93.23. This places BCC in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -16.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 655 weeks of data, BCC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BCC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +49.0%.
With a market cap of $2.7 billion, BCC is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 5.3%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 12.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BCC would have grown to $375, compared to $518 for the S&P 500. BCC has returned 11.1% annualized vs 14.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -76.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BCC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BCC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying BCC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +44.9% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +23.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +67.6% vs +33.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BCC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BCC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BCC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $66.47 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $70.25 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $74.47 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $79.24 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $84.66 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BCC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BCC has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +49.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2014 | Jun 2014 | 11 | 13.4% | +34.3% | +315.5% |
| Jul 2014 | Jul 2014 | 2 | 6.0% | +31.4% | +339.7% |
| Sep 2015 | Apr 2017 | 81 | 53.3% | -16.4% | +292.9% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 2 | 4.3% | +67.5% | +323.9% |
| Oct 2018 | Aug 2019 | 41 | 24.8% | +19.3% | +264.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 7 | 31.5% | +130.4% | +294.7% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 2.9% | +147.0% | +260.5% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 5 | 2.0% | -21.6% | -10.5% |
| Jul 2025 | Ongoing | 55+ | 28.6% | Ongoing | -7.9% |
| Average | 23 | — | +49.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BCC below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Boise Cascade Company (BCC) is trading 18.1% below its 200-week moving average of $93.23. The current price is $76.38.
What is BCC's 200-week moving average price?
Boise Cascade Company's 200-week moving average is $93.23 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BCC drops below its 200-week moving average?
BCC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +49.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is BCC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BCC as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 5.3%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BCC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.6 years, $100 invested in BCC would have grown to $375, compared to $518 for the S&P 500. That's 11.1% annualized vs 14.0% for the index. BCC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BCC pay a dividend?
Yes. Boise Cascade Company currently pays a dividend yield of 117.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31