BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. Technology - AI Software Investor Relations →
BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (BBAI) closed at $4.72 as of 2026-02-02, trading 45.9% above its 200-week moving average of $3.24. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 54.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 204 weeks of data, BBAI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -29.2%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $2.2 billion, BBAI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.5%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -120.3%. The stock trades at 3.4x book value.
Share count has increased 85.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BBAI would have grown to $56, compared to $162 for the S&P 500. BBAI has returned -13.3% annualized vs 12.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: BBAI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BBAI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying BBAI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -46.2% after 12 months (median -62.0%), compared to +3.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 25% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -77.3% vs +25.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BBAI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
BBAI has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +-29.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2022 | Apr 2022 | 3 | 26.3% | -72.5% | -26.7% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 1 | 3.2% | -67.1% | -44.8% |
| May 2022 | Dec 2024 | 137 | 89.6% | -68.8% | -38.2% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 2 | 21.0% | +91.4% | +45.7% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 12 | 33.8% | N/A | +41.3% |
| Average | 31 | — | +-29.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02