BAX
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Baxter International Inc. (BAX) closed at $22.80 as of 2026-09-18, trading 27.9% below its 200-week moving average of $31.60. This places BAX in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -25.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 57, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.38 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2294 weeks of data, BAX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BAX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.0%.
With a market cap of $11.8 billion, BAX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.5%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -14.4%. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BAX would have grown to $609, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. BAX has returned 5.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -17.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BAX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BAX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying BAX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.2% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +14.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +22.2% vs +37.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BAX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BAX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BAX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $21.42 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $23.35 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $25.66 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $28.48 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $31.99 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $0.37 | $0.56 | +52.5% |
| 2026-04-30 | $0.31 | $0.36 | +15.9% |
| 2026-02-12 | $0.54 | $0.44 | -17.8% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.60 | $0.69 | +15.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BAX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BAX has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +16.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1983 | Dec 1983 | 3 | 4.1% | -41.0% | +1080.6% |
| Jan 1984 | Mar 1986 | 112 | 39.0% | -38.5% | +1043.3% |
| Mar 1986 | Apr 1986 | 1 | 1.3% | +39.1% | +1208.8% |
| Apr 1986 | May 1986 | 1 | 0.3% | +37.9% | +1191.1% |
| Jun 1986 | Jul 1986 | 4 | 3.6% | +33.7% | +1184.5% |
| Aug 1986 | Oct 1986 | 9 | 14.9% | +50.2% | +1220.2% |
| Nov 1986 | Nov 1986 | 1 | 1.6% | +31.3% | +1231.2% |
| Sep 1988 | Jan 1989 | 17 | 12.2% | +26.9% | +1152.5% |
| Feb 1989 | Mar 1989 | 2 | 1.8% | +29.3% | +1102.1% |
| Apr 1989 | Apr 1989 | 2 | 0.9% | +21.4% | +1077.7% |
| Apr 1990 | Apr 1990 | 1 | 0.8% | +72.7% | +958.2% |
| Jul 1993 | Aug 1994 | 59 | 25.0% | +2.3% | +579.7% |
| Oct 1994 | Dec 1994 | 10 | 6.2% | +59.7% | +540.4% |
| Jul 2002 | Feb 2005 | 135 | 51.3% | -16.6% | +107.2% |
| Mar 2005 | Apr 2005 | 5 | 3.2% | +15.8% | +83.3% |
| Mar 2009 | Apr 2009 | 1 | 0.9% | +22.2% | +20.2% |
| Apr 2009 | May 2009 | 2 | 2.4% | +4.7% | +21.6% |
| Jun 2009 | Jun 2009 | 1 | 4.2% | -11.2% | +22.9% |
| Apr 2010 | Mar 2011 | 48 | 23.9% | +17.7% | +16.1% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 2.7% | +16.9% | +7.5% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 9 | 9.4% | +34.5% | +9.5% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 5 | 3.8% | +45.6% | +5.8% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 4 | 4.0% | +39.5% | -21.9% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 1 | 0.3% | +33.9% | -23.6% |
| Aug 2021 | Aug 2021 | 4 | 3.1% | -20.6% | -66.3% |
| Nov 2021 | Nov 2021 | 1 | 1.1% | -25.4% | -67.0% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 3 | 1.6% | -49.5% | -67.5% |
| Apr 2022 | Ongoing | 232+ | 56.3% | Ongoing | -67.3% |
| Average | 24 | — | +16.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BAX below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Baxter International Inc. (BAX) is trading 27.9% below its 200-week moving average of $31.60. The current price is $22.80.
What is BAX's 200-week moving average price?
Baxter International Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $31.60 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BAX drops below its 200-week moving average?
BAX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is BAX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BAX as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 57. Free cash flow yield is 8.5%. Return on equity is -14.4%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BAX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in BAX would have grown to $609, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 5.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. BAX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BAX pay a dividend?
Yes. Baxter International Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 17.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18