BALL
Ball Corporation Materials - Packaging Investor Relations →
Ball Corporation (BALL) closed at $57.72 as of 2026-06-19, trading 5.0% above its 200-week moving average of $55.00. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 3.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 43, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2734 weeks of data, BALL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BALL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.8%.
With a market cap of $15.4 billion, BALL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.6%. Return on equity stands at 16.8%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BALL would have grown to $4412, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming BALL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BALL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BALL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying BALL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +19.6% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +13.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +57.1% vs +37.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BALL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BALL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BALL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $51.22 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $57.76 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $66.21 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $77.56 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $93.61 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BALL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BALL has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +14.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Dec 1974 | 48 | 22.9% | +4.2% | +67717.1% |
| May 1979 | May 1979 | 1 | 0.1% | +6.0% | +39119.5% |
| Mar 1980 | Apr 1980 | 6 | 7.9% | +31.2% | +37532.6% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 2 | 2.2% | +3.1% | +6425.6% |
| Feb 1988 | Feb 1988 | 3 | 3.3% | -5.7% | +6453.3% |
| May 1988 | Jul 1989 | 65 | 20.8% | +4.7% | +6816.4% |
| Sep 1989 | Dec 1989 | 14 | 14.7% | -4.8% | +5661.8% |
| Jan 1990 | Apr 1990 | 10 | 11.2% | -12.5% | +5748.3% |
| Apr 1990 | Apr 1990 | 1 | 2.4% | -7.3% | +5666.8% |
| May 1990 | Jun 1990 | 5 | 3.4% | -4.9% | +5714.0% |
| Aug 1990 | May 1991 | 42 | 12.9% | +18.0% | +5685.0% |
| Oct 1992 | Oct 1992 | 2 | 2.8% | +24.8% | +5612.9% |
| Oct 1993 | Nov 1993 | 2 | 3.0% | +11.2% | +5162.1% |
| Jan 1994 | Apr 1994 | 13 | 6.0% | +16.7% | +5005.7% |
| Jun 1994 | Aug 1994 | 6 | 6.8% | +37.5% | +5048.6% |
| Sep 1994 | Sep 1994 | 1 | 1.7% | +31.8% | +4923.5% |
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1995 | 6 | 8.6% | -14.6% | +4523.5% |
| Dec 1995 | Jan 1996 | 7 | 8.7% | -3.0% | +4758.9% |
| May 1996 | May 1997 | 53 | 17.0% | -0.3% | +4497.1% |
| Sep 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 3.2% | +62.0% | +4105.7% |
| Feb 2000 | Apr 2000 | 8 | 22.8% | +27.5% | +3625.4% |
| Apr 2000 | Nov 2000 | 30 | 14.4% | +46.4% | +3535.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2009 | 27 | 31.2% | +21.6% | +549.6% |
| Apr 2009 | Jun 2009 | 6 | 11.4% | +38.5% | +578.0% |
| Jun 2009 | Jun 2009 | 2 | 2.3% | +32.6% | +550.6% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 2 | 2.0% | +88.4% | +75.8% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 3 | 5.7% | -17.4% | -14.8% |
| Jun 2022 | Jan 2026 | 189 | 38.5% | -22.1% | -10.8% |
| May 2026 | Jun 2026 | 4 | 4.1% | N/A | +4.9% |
| Average | 19 | — | +14.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BALL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ball Corporation (BALL) is currently 5.0% above its 200-week moving average of $55.00. It would need to fall to $55.00 to cross below the line.
What is BALL's 200-week moving average price?
Ball Corporation's 200-week moving average is $55.00 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BALL drops below its 200-week moving average?
BALL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is BALL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BALL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 43. Free cash flow yield is 2.6%. Return on equity is 16.8%. Price-to-book is 2.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BALL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in BALL would have grown to $4412, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 12.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. BALL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BALL pay a dividend?
Yes. Ball Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 137.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19