BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited Consumer Discretionary - E-Commerce Investor Relations →
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) closed at $162.51 as of 2026-02-02, trading 66.2% above its 200-week moving average of $97.80. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 74.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 546 weeks of data, BABA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times. On average, these episodes lasted 116 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -9.2%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $388.0 billion, BABA is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 11.2%. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 10.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BABA would have grown to $268, compared to $417 for the S&P 500. BABA has returned 9.8% annualized vs 14.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -4.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: BABA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BABA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 2 historical episodes, buying BABA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.5% after 12 months (median +55.0%), compared to +3.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +59.0% vs +19.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BABA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
BABA has crossed below its 200-week MA 2 times with an average 1-year return of +-9.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2015 | Aug 2016 | 49 | 33.0% | +35.7% | +144.2% |
| Jul 2021 | Feb 2025 | 184 | 64.9% | -54.2% | -12.3% |
| Average | 116 | — | +-9.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02