AZN
AstraZeneca PLC Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) closed at $169.64 as of 2026-07-31, trading 16.1% above its 200-week moving average of $146.08. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 16.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 36, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1685 weeks of data, AZN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AZN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.3%.
Return on equity stands at 22.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.2x book value.
Over the past 32.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AZN would have grown to $4699, compared to $2928 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.6% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming AZN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 6.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AZN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AZN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying AZN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.0% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +6.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 95% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +42.5% vs +20.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AZN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AZN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AZN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $170.65 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $185.17 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $202.39 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $223.14 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $248.63 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AZN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AZN has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +21.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1994 | May 1994 | 3 | 3.0% | +50.6% | +4695.4% |
| May 1994 | Jun 1994 | 2 | 2.6% | +49.3% | +4599.1% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 3 | 6.2% | +31.5% | +1154.9% |
| Jun 2002 | May 2003 | 51 | 30.7% | +9.4% | +850.7% |
| Jun 2003 | Jun 2003 | 1 | 0.7% | +14.3% | +852.1% |
| Jul 2003 | Sep 2003 | 7 | 6.1% | +10.8% | +884.9% |
| Sep 2004 | Nov 2004 | 7 | 9.0% | +17.4% | +807.6% |
| Nov 2004 | Feb 2005 | 15 | 16.0% | +17.4% | +863.3% |
| Mar 2005 | Apr 2005 | 2 | 3.3% | +33.4% | +836.5% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 3 | 4.0% | -0.7% | +677.6% |
| Dec 2007 | Jun 2008 | 29 | 19.9% | -10.0% | +670.1% |
| Jul 2008 | Jul 2008 | 1 | 0.1% | +4.5% | +646.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Jun 2009 | 39 | 30.5% | +5.2% | +638.9% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 2 | 2.5% | +14.4% | +644.1% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 0.6% | +22.9% | +627.5% |
| May 2010 | May 2010 | 4 | 3.0% | +29.1% | +642.0% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 1.4% | +35.7% | +582.5% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 3 | 2.0% | +27.9% | +303.7% |
| Oct 2016 | Feb 2017 | 15 | 11.1% | +22.8% | +289.6% |
| Aug 2017 | Aug 2017 | 3 | 1.3% | +40.9% | +265.3% |
| Average | 10 | — | +21.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AZN below its 200-week moving average?
No. AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) is currently 16.1% above its 200-week moving average of $146.08. It would need to fall to $146.08 to cross below the line.
What is AZN's 200-week moving average price?
AstraZeneca PLC's 200-week moving average is $146.08 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AZN drops below its 200-week moving average?
AZN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is AZN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AZN as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 36. Return on equity is 22.0%. Price-to-book is 5.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AZN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.3 years, $100 invested in AZN would have grown to $4699, compared to $2928 for the S&P 500. That's 12.6% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. AZN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AZN pay a dividend?
Yes. AstraZeneca PLC currently pays a dividend yield of 186.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31