AYI
Acuity Inc. Industrials - Electrical Equipment & Parts Investor Relations →
Acuity Inc. (AYI) closed at $317.62 as of 2026-06-19, trading 28.6% above its 200-week moving average of $246.95. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 20.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, AYI is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1232 weeks of data, AYI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AYI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +30.1%.
With a market cap of $9.6 billion, AYI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.5%. Return on equity stands at 16.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.5% over the past three years. AYI passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 23.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AYI would have grown to $3490, compared to $1226 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.2% vs 11.2% for the index — confirming AYI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 27.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AYI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AYI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying AYI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +28.4% after 12 months (median +59.0%), compared to +19.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.7% vs +32.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AYI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AYI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AYI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-06-25.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $252.33 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $265.82 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $280.83 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $297.64 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $316.59 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AYI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AYI has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +30.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2002 | Dec 2002 | 4 | 12.5% | +76.0% | +3658.7% |
| Dec 2002 | Apr 2003 | 15 | 12.5% | +96.7% | +3518.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Jan 2010 | 65 | 43.0% | +3.2% | +921.9% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 4 | 4.5% | +51.6% | +829.0% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 7.6% | +59.7% | +866.2% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 1 | 1.9% | +10.9% | +807.3% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 2 | 11.0% | +79.4% | +808.6% |
| Apr 2017 | Apr 2017 | 1 | 0.5% | -24.0% | +89.6% |
| May 2017 | Jun 2017 | 7 | 6.4% | -33.9% | +88.7% |
| Aug 2017 | Mar 2021 | 186 | 53.5% | -19.1% | +83.4% |
| Average | 29 | — | +30.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AYI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Acuity Inc. (AYI) is currently 28.6% above its 200-week moving average of $246.95. It would need to fall to $246.95 to cross below the line.
What is AYI's 200-week moving average price?
Acuity Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $246.95 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AYI drops below its 200-week moving average?
AYI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +30.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is AYI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AYI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 4.5%. Return on equity is 16.0%. Price-to-book is 3.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AYI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 23.7 years, $100 invested in AYI would have grown to $3490, compared to $1226 for the S&P 500. That's 16.2% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. AYI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AYI pay a dividend?
Yes. Acuity Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 24.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19