AXP
American Express Company Financial Services - Credit Cards Investor Relations →
American Express Company (AXP) closed at $311.56 as of 2026-09-18, trading 24.3% above its 200-week moving average of $250.71. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 29.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2785 weeks of data, AXP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AXP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.2%.
With a market cap of $210.4 billion, AXP is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 34.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AXP would have grown to $8514, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AXP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -5.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AXP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AXP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying AXP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +37.4% after 12 months (median +36.0%), compared to +18.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.8% vs +20.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AXP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AXP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AXP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $310.51 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $332.84 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $358.62 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $388.74 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $424.38 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.40 | $4.53 | +2.9% |
| 2026-04-23 | $3.99 | $4.28 | +7.2% |
| 2026-01-30 | $3.55 | $3.53 | -0.7% |
| 2025-10-17 | $3.98 | $4.14 | +4.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AXP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AXP has crossed below its 200-week MA 33 times with an average 1-year return of +21.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1973 | Jul 1973 | 10 | 17.5% | -32.3% | +27418.7% |
| Aug 1973 | Sep 1973 | 3 | 2.8% | -54.3% | +25007.9% |
| Nov 1973 | Nov 1976 | 159 | 64.7% | -47.0% | +26974.8% |
| Dec 1976 | May 1977 | 21 | 10.9% | -3.8% | +37804.8% |
| May 1977 | Jun 1977 | 3 | 5.6% | +6.3% | +40083.6% |
| Jan 1978 | Apr 1978 | 14 | 7.1% | -4.1% | +41783.7% |
| Sep 1978 | May 1979 | 36 | 16.5% | +3.5% | +39686.1% |
| Jul 1979 | Jul 1979 | 1 | 0.4% | +13.8% | +39654.1% |
| Oct 1979 | Apr 1980 | 29 | 20.0% | +21.4% | +40190.3% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 1 | 0.5% | +84.8% | +20112.5% |
| Oct 1987 | Nov 1987 | 1 | 0.1% | +19.5% | +9852.5% |
| Nov 1987 | Jan 1988 | 8 | 11.3% | +16.9% | +9904.3% |
| Mar 1988 | May 1988 | 10 | 7.1% | +26.1% | +9538.0% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 3 | 0.9% | +34.8% | +8661.8% |
| Feb 1990 | May 1990 | 13 | 11.7% | -3.7% | +7608.2% |
| Jul 1990 | Mar 1991 | 32 | 34.4% | -3.4% | +7823.7% |
| Apr 1991 | Dec 1992 | 86 | 29.1% | -9.6% | +8066.5% |
| Jan 1993 | Feb 1993 | 1 | 3.4% | +44.9% | +8414.3% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 5 | 8.8% | +11.4% | +1224.0% |
| Jun 2001 | May 2002 | 48 | 38.7% | -6.8% | +1195.4% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2003 | 52 | 33.2% | +11.3% | +1176.5% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2010 | 118 | 78.2% | -64.2% | +717.6% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 6 | 6.1% | +25.8% | +864.0% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 2.8% | +35.0% | +888.4% |
| Oct 2010 | Oct 2010 | 3 | 4.1% | +16.1% | +920.8% |
| Nov 2015 | Dec 2016 | 56 | 28.3% | +0.9% | +409.3% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 1 | 0.7% | +36.2% | +380.2% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 21.6% | +93.2% | +357.2% |
| Jun 2020 | Aug 2020 | 6 | 3.0% | +84.2% | +260.8% |
| Aug 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 0.7% | +68.4% | +248.9% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 1.5% | +85.0% | +248.5% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 2 | 7.0% | +92.7% | +266.2% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 0.3% | +97.9% | +126.9% |
| Average | 22 | — | +21.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXP below its 200-week moving average?
No. American Express Company (AXP) is currently 24.3% above its 200-week moving average of $250.71. It would need to fall to $250.71 to cross below the line.
What is AXP's 200-week moving average price?
American Express Company's 200-week moving average is $250.71 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AXP drops below its 200-week moving average?
AXP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is AXP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AXP as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Return on equity is 34.4%. Price-to-book is 6.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AXP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in AXP would have grown to $8514, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 14.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AXP has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AXP pay a dividend?
Yes. American Express Company currently pays a dividend yield of 122.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18