AXGN
Axogen, Inc. Healthcare - Medical Devices Investor Relations →
Axogen, Inc. (AXGN) closed at $44.84 as of 2026-06-19, trading 203.2% above its 200-week moving average of $14.79. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 194.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, AXGN is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.34 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2013 weeks of data, AXGN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AXGN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.7%.
With a market cap of $2.4 billion, AXGN is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.8%. Return on equity stands at -18.0%. The stock trades at 9.7x book value.
Share count has increased 11.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AXGN would have grown to $514, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. AXGN has returned 5.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AXGN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AXGN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying AXGN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.6% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +15.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.2% vs +37.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AXGN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AXGN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AXGN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $29.52 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $32.30 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $35.66 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $39.80 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $45.02 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AXGN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AXGN has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +20.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 3 | 1.6% | +5.1% | +1206.8% |
| Jan 1988 | Feb 1988 | 2 | 4.1% | +7.9% | +1241.2% |
| Feb 1988 | Apr 1988 | 7 | 11.3% | +22.2% | +1315.7% |
| Apr 1988 | Jun 1988 | 9 | 7.9% | -5.1% | +1206.8% |
| Aug 1988 | Aug 1988 | 2 | 3.5% | +7.7% | +1206.8% |
| Nov 1988 | Dec 1988 | 3 | 5.3% | -2.6% | +1241.2% |
| Feb 1989 | Feb 1989 | 1 | 0.9% | -15.0% | +1174.1% |
| Apr 1989 | Apr 1989 | 3 | 8.4% | -10.3% | +1206.8% |
| May 1989 | May 1989 | 1 | 1.0% | N/A | +1174.1% |
| Jul 1989 | Sep 1989 | 8 | 6.1% | -7.7% | +1206.8% |
| Oct 1989 | Mar 1991 | 71 | 32.5% | -12.8% | +1206.8% |
| Jun 1994 | Jun 1994 | 1 | 0.5% | +44.0% | +556.9% |
| Aug 1994 | Nov 1994 | 13 | 20.6% | +29.4% | +544.1% |
| Dec 1994 | Mar 1995 | 15 | 20.6% | +44.6% | +573.8% |
| Jul 1995 | Jul 1995 | 1 | 1.1% | +17.3% | +483.9% |
| Nov 1995 | Dec 1995 | 1 | 5.6% | -25.0% | +508.3% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 3 | 1.6% | -32.9% | +454.4% |
| Sep 1996 | Jan 2004 | 385 | 89.9% | -32.5% | +468.8% |
| Feb 2004 | Mar 2004 | 4 | 16.7% | +95.7% | +4660.4% |
| Mar 2004 | Jul 2004 | 17 | 51.4% | +93.3% | +5320.2% |
| Oct 2004 | Oct 2004 | 2 | 13.2% | -25.9% | +5543.7% |
| Nov 2004 | Nov 2004 | 3 | 9.0% | -7.5% | +5374.4% |
| Sep 2005 | Apr 2007 | 85 | 72.7% | -73.0% | +5228.4% |
| Dec 2007 | Dec 2007 | 1 | 2.2% | +96.9% | +3998.8% |
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2012 | 49 | 33.7% | +3.3% | +1394.7% |
| Jan 2012 | Apr 2012 | 12 | 19.7% | +17.7% | +1346.5% |
| Jun 2012 | Jan 2013 | 28 | 20.6% | +44.7% | +1394.7% |
| Aug 2013 | Sep 2013 | 4 | 8.4% | -24.2% | +1404.7% |
| Mar 2014 | Dec 2014 | 38 | 29.8% | +0.9% | +1292.5% |
| Feb 2015 | Mar 2015 | 2 | 1.1% | +58.4% | +1314.5% |
| Apr 2015 | Jul 2015 | 11 | 6.7% | +82.4% | +1305.6% |
| Jan 2019 | Feb 2019 | 5 | 6.8% | -2.1% | +176.1% |
| Jul 2019 | Aug 2024 | 264 | 68.7% | -33.1% | +154.9% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 6.2% | +341.0% | +359.9% |
| Average | 31 | — | +20.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXGN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Axogen, Inc. (AXGN) is currently 203.2% above its 200-week moving average of $14.79. It would need to fall to $14.79 to cross below the line.
What is AXGN's 200-week moving average price?
Axogen, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $14.79 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AXGN drops below its 200-week moving average?
AXGN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 31 weeks on average.
Is AXGN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AXGN as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 0.8%. Return on equity is -18.0%. Price-to-book is 9.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AXGN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in AXGN would have grown to $514, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 5.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AXGN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19