AX
Axos Financial, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Axos Financial, Inc. (AX) closed at $88.07 as of 2026-06-19, trading 42.9% above its 200-week moving average of $61.63. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 47.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.68 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 1061 weeks of data, AX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +37.0%.
With a market cap of $5.0 billion, AX is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 16.8%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 20.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AX would have grown to $5033, compared to $848 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.2% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming AX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 30.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying AX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +29.4% after 12 months (median +35.0%), compared to +18.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +80.7% vs +41.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $75.98 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $82.35 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $89.88 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $98.93 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $110.00 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AX has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +37.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2006 | Aug 2008 | 128 | 28.6% | +5.4% | +4660.5% |
| Aug 2008 | May 2009 | 37 | 49.5% | +9.6% | +5509.6% |
| May 2009 | Jul 2009 | 10 | 12.4% | +123.0% | +5050.3% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 12.4% | +97.0% | +495.1% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 0.1% | +43.2% | +410.6% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 1.5% | +35.5% | +409.4% |
| Jun 2016 | Aug 2016 | 8 | 8.4% | +35.3% | +415.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 2 | 4.0% | +46.8% | +379.7% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 8.9% | +22.0% | +255.8% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 1.7% | -20.2% | +222.5% |
| Jun 2019 | Oct 2019 | 16 | 9.7% | -19.5% | +237.4% |
| Jan 2020 | Nov 2020 | 42 | 48.5% | +46.7% | +209.6% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 0.6% | +11.8% | +149.6% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 1.9% | +15.9% | +152.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 4.8% | +10.6% | +157.3% |
| Dec 2022 | Dec 2022 | 1 | 1.7% | +47.5% | +145.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | 4 | 3.5% | +44.9% | +144.2% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 3.1% | +64.5% | +140.6% |
| Jun 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 4.0% | +46.5% | +140.4% |
| Sep 2023 | Nov 2023 | 10 | 11.2% | +73.0% | +130.1% |
| Average | 14 | — | +37.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Axos Financial, Inc. (AX) is currently 42.9% above its 200-week moving average of $61.63. It would need to fall to $61.63 to cross below the line.
What is AX's 200-week moving average price?
Axos Financial, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $61.63 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AX drops below its 200-week moving average?
AX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +37.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is AX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AX as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 54. Return on equity is 16.8%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 20.4 years, $100 invested in AX would have grown to $5033, compared to $848 for the S&P 500. That's 21.2% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. AX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19