AWI
Armstrong World Industries, Inc. Industrials - Building Products & Equipment Investor Relations →
Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI) closed at $159.63 as of 2026-09-18, trading 23.9% above its 200-week moving average of $128.83. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 27.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.42 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 991 weeks of data, AWI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 42 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AWI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.8%.
With a market cap of $6.7 billion, AWI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.3%. Return on equity stands at 36.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 19.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AWI would have grown to $772, compared to $706 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AWI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 31.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AWI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AWI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying AWI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.4% after 12 months (median -6.0%), compared to +16.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.0% vs +21.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AWI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AWI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AWI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $143.14 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $151.94 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $161.89 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $173.24 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $186.30 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $2.25 | $2.36 | +5.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | $1.81 | $1.69 | -6.4% |
| 2026-02-24 | $1.68 | $1.61 | -4.0% |
| 2025-10-28 | $2.03 | $2.05 | +0.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AWI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AWI has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +17.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2009 | 102 | 69.7% | -10.4% | +671.5% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 4 | 9.9% | +84.9% | +743.7% |
| Sep 2015 | Sep 2017 | 104 | 28.3% | -18.2% | +240.4% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 2.6% | +53.6% | +156.8% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 4 | 12.5% | +46.0% | +148.9% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 13 | 12.8% | -17.9% | +97.3% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2023 | 64 | 25.5% | -13.6% | +92.2% |
| Average | 42 | — | +17.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AWI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI) is currently 23.9% above its 200-week moving average of $128.83. It would need to fall to $128.83 to cross below the line.
What is AWI's 200-week moving average price?
Armstrong World Industries, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $128.83 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AWI drops below its 200-week moving average?
AWI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 42 weeks on average.
Is AWI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AWI as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 54. Free cash flow yield is 3.3%. Return on equity is 36.6%. Price-to-book is 7.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AWI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19.1 years, $100 invested in AWI would have grown to $772, compared to $706 for the S&P 500. That's 11.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AWI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AWI pay a dividend?
Yes. Armstrong World Industries, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 85.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18