AVO
Mission Produce, Inc. Consumer Defensive - Food Distribution Investor Relations →
Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO) closed at $12.90 as of 2026-09-18, trading 9.5% above its 200-week moving average of $11.78. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 10.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.50 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 263 weeks of data, AVO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -6.1%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $1131 million, AVO is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 0.5%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Over the past 5.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AVO would have grown to $69, compared to $190 for the S&P 500. AVO has returned -7.1% annualized vs 13.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 24 open-market purchases totaling $87,153,154. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AVO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AVO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying AVO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +2.0% after 12 months (median +6.0%), compared to +7.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -52.0% vs +3.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AVO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. AVO currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | $0.12 | $0.18 | +56.5% |
| 2026-06-08 | $0.05 | $0.01 | -81.2% |
| 2026-03-12 | $0.07 | $0.10 | +36.4% |
| 2025-12-18 | $0.23 | $0.31 | +34.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AVO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AVO has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +-6.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2024 | 159 | 41.8% | -12.9% | -28.2% |
| Jan 2025 | Aug 2025 | 31 | 27.0% | +0.7% | +6.3% |
| Sep 2025 | Nov 2025 | 6 | 4.9% | N/A | +7.2% |
| Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | 2 | 4.5% | N/A | +11.8% |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | 2 | 3.8% | N/A | +10.5% |
| May 2026 | Jun 2026 | 6 | 14.9% | N/A | +7.9% |
| Average | 34 | — | +-6.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO) is currently 9.5% above its 200-week moving average of $11.78. It would need to fall to $11.78 to cross below the line.
What is AVO's 200-week moving average price?
Mission Produce, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $11.78 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AVO drops below its 200-week moving average?
AVO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -6.1%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 34 weeks on average.
Is AVO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AVO as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 65. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 0.5%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AVO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 5.1 years, $100 invested in AVO would have grown to $69, compared to $190 for the S&P 500. That's -7.1% annualized vs 13.4% for the index. AVO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18