AVNW
Aviat Networks, Inc. Technology - Communication Equipment Investor Relations →
Aviat Networks, Inc. (AVNW) closed at $20.04 as of 2026-06-19, trading 24.6% below its 200-week moving average of $26.59. This places AVNW in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -27.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.71 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1991 weeks of data, AVNW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 44 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AVNW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.7%.
With a market cap of $259 million, AVNW is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 3.4%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
Share count has increased 14.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AVNW would have grown to $79, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. AVNW has returned -0.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AVNW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AVNW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying AVNW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.6% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +10.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +140.5% vs +30.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AVNW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AVNW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AVNW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $16.07 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $18.18 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $20.92 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $24.64 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $29.97 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AVNW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AVNW has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +38.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1988 | Jun 1988 | 5 | 10.3% | +100.0% | -57.6% |
| Jun 1988 | Jul 1988 | 1 | 0.6% | +37.6% | -59.8% |
| Aug 1988 | Sep 1988 | 4 | 2.4% | +50.7% | -60.1% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 1 | 4.3% | +50.8% | -58.9% |
| Apr 1990 | Aug 1993 | 175 | 68.2% | +14.7% | -47.6% |
| Apr 1994 | May 1994 | 4 | 26.5% | -2.1% | -44.3% |
| Jun 1994 | Jul 1994 | 4 | 25.9% | +26.6% | -32.4% |
| Apr 1995 | Jun 1995 | 11 | 17.0% | -24.4% | -40.6% |
| Jul 1995 | Sep 1995 | 6 | 11.0% | +23.7% | -44.9% |
| Sep 1995 | May 1996 | 33 | 37.5% | +82.8% | -46.0% |
| May 1998 | Apr 1999 | 46 | 72.5% | +30.7% | -65.4% |
| Sep 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 2.6% | -67.9% | -79.2% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2000 | 1 | 9.5% | -53.9% | -77.9% |
| Dec 2000 | Nov 2005 | 255 | 92.4% | -40.3% | -74.3% |
| Nov 2005 | Nov 2005 | 1 | 3.4% | +54.9% | +16.0% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 1 | 1.3% | -12.2% | -57.7% |
| Sep 2008 | Apr 2017 | 448 | 72.5% | -4.9% | -55.6% |
| Nov 2017 | Nov 2017 | 1 | 5.0% | +15.5% | +196.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 10.1% | +15.7% | +225.3% |
| Jan 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 3.4% | +3.7% | +203.4% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 2 | 4.7% | -26.7% | +207.6% |
| Apr 2019 | Aug 2019 | 17 | 8.2% | -31.4% | +194.7% |
| Jan 2020 | Jan 2020 | 1 | 0.9% | +139.9% | +187.9% |
| Jan 2020 | May 2020 | 16 | 47.4% | +162.4% | +192.6% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 2 | 2.4% | +421.5% | +181.3% |
| Jun 2024 | Ongoing | 106+ | 55.1% | Ongoing | -31.8% |
| Average | 44 | — | +38.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVNW below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Aviat Networks, Inc. (AVNW) is trading 24.6% below its 200-week moving average of $26.59. The current price is $20.04.
What is AVNW's 200-week moving average price?
Aviat Networks, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $26.59 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AVNW drops below its 200-week moving average?
AVNW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 44 weeks on average.
Is AVNW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AVNW as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 39. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 3.4%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AVNW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in AVNW would have grown to $79, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's -0.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AVNW has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19