AVB
AvalonBay Communities Inc. Real Estate - Residential REITs Investor Relations →
AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB) closed at $65.90 as of 2026-08-21, trading 3.5% above its 200-week moving average of $63.67. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 3.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1645 weeks of data, AVB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AVB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.3%.
With a market cap of $26.3 billion, AVB is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 8.5%. The stock trades at 2.2x book value.
Over the past 31.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AVB would have grown to $3688, compared to $2705 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.1% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming AVB as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AVB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AVB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying AVB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.8% after 12 months (median +26.0%), compared to +12.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.1% vs +30.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AVB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AVB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AVB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $63.46 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $68.21 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $73.73 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $80.22 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $87.97 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AVB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AVB has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +13.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1995 | Jun 1995 | 16 | 7.2% | +35.2% | +3588.1% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 1 | 0.3% | +37.9% | +1081.5% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 13 | 6.6% | +35.4% | +1087.0% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 7.9% | -23.6% | +330.1% |
| Feb 2008 | Feb 2008 | 1 | 0.5% | -39.9% | +299.1% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 5 | 7.8% | -32.3% | +286.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2010 | 75 | 53.9% | -13.4% | +307.9% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 7 | 5.7% | +26.2% | +54.8% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 1 | 1.3% | +26.0% | +52.1% |
| May 2018 | May 2018 | 2 | 3.7% | +33.1% | +55.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Feb 2021 | 46 | 25.4% | +44.7% | +76.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Jun 2023 | 36 | 14.8% | -3.1% | +14.5% |
| Jun 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 0.9% | +16.6% | +14.0% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 1 | 1.1% | +24.4% | +14.3% |
| Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | 14 | 9.2% | +29.3% | +14.3% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 6 | 1.9% | +25.1% | +13.3% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2 | 2.0% | +4.6% | +3.8% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | N/A | +2.8% |
| Oct 2025 | Apr 2026 | 26 | 10.8% | N/A | +9.0% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 0.6% | N/A | +4.8% |
| Average | 13 | — | +13.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVB below its 200-week moving average?
No. AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB) is currently 3.5% above its 200-week moving average of $63.67. It would need to fall to $63.67 to cross below the line.
What is AVB's 200-week moving average price?
AvalonBay Communities Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $63.67 as of 2026-08-21. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AVB drops below its 200-week moving average?
AVB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is AVB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AVB as of 2026-08-21: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 54. Free cash flow yield is 5.4%. Return on equity is 8.5%. Price-to-book is 2.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AVB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.6 years, $100 invested in AVB would have grown to $3688, compared to $2705 for the S&P 500. That's 12.1% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. AVB has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AVB pay a dividend?
Yes. AvalonBay Communities Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 387.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-08-21