AVB
AvalonBay Communities Inc. Real Estate - Residential REITs Investor Relations →
AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB) closed at $161.37 as of 2026-03-20, trading 10.4% below its 200-week moving average of $180.20. This places AVB in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -6.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.83 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1623 weeks of data, AVB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AVB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.8%.
With a market cap of $22.8 billion, AVB is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.9%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 8.9%. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
Over the past 31.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AVB would have grown to $2625, compared to $2285 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.1% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming AVB as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AVB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AVB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying AVB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.8% after 12 months (median +26.0%), compared to +13.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.8% vs +32.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AVB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AVB has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +15.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1995 | Aug 1995 | 26 | 11.5% | +25.5% | +2525.1% |
| Nov 1995 | Nov 1995 | 1 | 0.0% | +56.3% | +2410.3% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 1 | 0.2% | +37.9% | +915.0% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 13 | 6.5% | +35.4% | +919.7% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 7.8% | -23.6% | +269.5% |
| Feb 2008 | Feb 2008 | 1 | 0.5% | -39.9% | +242.9% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 5 | 7.8% | -32.3% | +231.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2010 | 75 | 53.9% | -12.6% | +253.7% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 7 | 5.7% | +26.2% | +32.9% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 1 | 1.3% | +26.0% | +30.7% |
| May 2018 | May 2018 | 2 | 3.6% | +33.1% | +33.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Feb 2021 | 46 | 25.4% | +44.7% | +51.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Jun 2023 | 36 | 14.7% | -3.2% | -0.8% |
| Jun 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 0.8% | +16.6% | -2.1% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 1 | 1.1% | +24.4% | -1.8% |
| Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | 14 | 9.2% | +29.3% | -1.8% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 6 | 1.9% | +25.1% | -2.6% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2 | 2.0% | N/A | -10.9% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 0.6% | N/A | -11.7% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 21+ | 10.4% | Ongoing | -6.3% |
| Average | 13 | — | +15.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVB below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB) is trading 10.4% below its 200-week moving average of $180.20. The current price is $161.37.
What is AVB's 200-week moving average price?
AvalonBay Communities Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $180.20 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AVB drops below its 200-week moving average?
AVB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is AVB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AVB as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow yield is 5.9%. Return on equity is 8.9%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AVB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.2 years, $100 invested in AVB would have grown to $2625, compared to $2285 for the S&P 500. That's 11.1% annualized vs 10.6% for the index. AVB has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AVB pay a dividend?
Yes. AvalonBay Communities Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 441.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20