AVB
AvalonBay Communities Inc. Real Estate - Residential REITs Investor Relations →
AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB) closed at $173.83 as of 2026-02-02, trading 3.9% below its 200-week moving average of $180.90. This places AVB in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -1.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1617 weeks of data, AVB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AVB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.3%.
With a market cap of $24.6 billion, AVB is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 8.9%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
Over the past 31.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AVB would have grown to $2828, compared to $2426 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.4% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AVB as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 10.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: AVB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AVB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying AVB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.7% after 12 months (median +26.0%), compared to +12.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +38.2% vs +30.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AVB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AVB has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +13.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1995 | Aug 1995 | 26 | 11.5% | +25.5% | +2727.8% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 1 | 0.2% | +37.9% | +993.4% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 13 | 6.5% | +35.4% | +998.5% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 7.8% | -23.6% | +298.0% |
| Feb 2008 | Feb 2008 | 1 | 0.5% | -39.9% | +269.4% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 5 | 7.8% | -32.3% | +257.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2010 | 75 | 53.9% | -12.6% | +281.0% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 7 | 5.7% | +26.2% | +43.2% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 1 | 1.3% | +26.0% | +40.8% |
| May 2018 | May 2018 | 2 | 3.6% | +33.1% | +43.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Feb 2021 | 46 | 25.4% | +44.7% | +62.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Jun 2023 | 36 | 14.7% | -3.2% | +6.9% |
| Jun 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 0.8% | +16.6% | +5.5% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 1 | 1.1% | +24.4% | +5.7% |
| Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | 14 | 9.2% | +29.3% | +5.8% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 6 | 1.9% | +25.1% | +4.9% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2 | 2.0% | N/A | -4.0% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 0.6% | N/A | -4.9% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 15+ | 6.1% | Ongoing | +0.9% |
| Average | 14 | — | +13.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02