AVAV
AeroVironment, Inc. Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) closed at $159.95 as of 2026-09-18, trading 6.3% below its 200-week moving average of $170.74. This places AVAV in the deep value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -13.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, up-weeks have carried more volume than down-weeks (1.67 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When trading picks up, it's more often on days the price is rising — buyers are showing more interest than sellers.
Over the past 977 weeks of data, AVAV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AVAV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.4%.
With a market cap of $8.1 billion, AVAV is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -4.6%. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
Share count has increased 93.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 18.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AVAV would have grown to $693, compared to $733 for the S&P 500. AVAV has returned 10.8% annualized vs 11.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AVAV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AVAV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying AVAV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +30.8% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +11.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 82% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.0% vs +30.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AVAV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. AVAV currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | $0.25 | $0.59 | +138.1% |
| 2026-06-29 | $1.47 | $1.84 | +25.0% |
| 2026-03-10 | $0.69 | $0.64 | -7.4% |
| 2025-12-09 | $0.79 | $0.44 | -44.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AVAV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AVAV has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +32.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2008 | Apr 2008 | 8 | 10.8% | +47.0% | +653.1% |
| Mar 2009 | May 2009 | 8 | 23.9% | +18.0% | +677.6% |
| Feb 2010 | Dec 2010 | 46 | 19.1% | +15.2% | +562.3% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 1 | 0.3% | -13.0% | +491.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 2 | 8.9% | -6.0% | +511.4% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 2.5% | -14.7% | +493.9% |
| Feb 2012 | Oct 2013 | 86 | 31.6% | -20.9% | +474.1% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 1.4% | +7.0% | +497.7% |
| Dec 2014 | Feb 2015 | 7 | 6.9% | +9.4% | +493.5% |
| Mar 2015 | Jun 2015 | 14 | 5.2% | +3.1% | +527.0% |
| Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 | 1 | 0.7% | +11.5% | +504.5% |
| Jul 2015 | Dec 2015 | 20 | 23.3% | +4.8% | +509.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 6 | 7.2% | +2.3% | +548.4% |
| Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 10 | 16.2% | +97.9% | +544.2% |
| Dec 2016 | Mar 2017 | 10 | 6.3% | +109.3% | +496.2% |
| Mar 2017 | Mar 2017 | 1 | 1.2% | +67.0% | +493.1% |
| Apr 2017 | Apr 2017 | 1 | 0.0% | +105.2% | +483.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | 4.4% | +114.2% | +211.2% |
| Dec 2021 | Mar 2022 | 14 | 30.9% | +30.2% | +153.6% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 1.0% | +22.6% | +103.3% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 4.6% | +36.7% | +108.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 5.1% | +65.1% | +43.3% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 1 | 3.6% | N/A | +1.2% |
| Jun 2026 | Aug 2026 | 6 | 17.1% | N/A | +15.9% |
| Aug 2026 | Ongoing | 5+ | 15.0% | Ongoing | -0.2% |
| Average | 10 | — | +32.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVAV below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is trading 6.3% below its 200-week moving average of $170.74. The current price is $159.95.
What is AVAV's 200-week moving average price?
AeroVironment, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $170.74 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AVAV drops below its 200-week moving average?
AVAV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is AVAV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AVAV as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -4.6%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AVAV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.8 years, $100 invested in AVAV would have grown to $693, compared to $733 for the S&P 500. That's 10.8% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. AVAV has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18