AVAV
AeroVironment, Inc. Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) closed at $197.72 as of 2026-03-20, trading 23.4% above its 200-week moving average of $160.16. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 29.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.60 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 951 weeks of data, AVAV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AVAV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +30.8%.
With a market cap of $10.0 billion, AVAV is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -8.7%. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
Share count has increased 13.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 18.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AVAV would have grown to $857, compared to $624 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.4% vs 10.5% for the index — confirming AVAV as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AVAV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AVAV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying AVAV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +31.3% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +11.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 82% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.0% vs +30.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AVAV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AVAV has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +30.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2008 | Apr 2008 | 8 | 10.8% | +47.0% | +830.9% |
| Mar 2009 | May 2009 | 8 | 23.9% | +18.0% | +861.2% |
| Feb 2010 | Dec 2010 | 46 | 19.1% | +15.2% | +718.7% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 1 | 0.3% | -13.0% | +630.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 2 | 8.9% | -6.0% | +655.8% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 2.5% | -14.7% | +634.2% |
| Feb 2012 | Oct 2013 | 86 | 31.6% | -20.9% | +609.7% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 1.4% | +7.0% | +638.9% |
| Dec 2014 | Feb 2015 | 7 | 6.9% | +9.4% | +633.7% |
| Mar 2015 | Jun 2015 | 14 | 5.2% | +3.1% | +675.1% |
| Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 | 1 | 0.7% | +11.5% | +647.2% |
| Jul 2015 | Dec 2015 | 20 | 23.3% | +4.8% | +653.5% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 6 | 7.2% | +2.3% | +701.5% |
| Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 10 | 16.2% | +97.9% | +696.3% |
| Dec 2016 | Mar 2017 | 10 | 6.3% | +109.3% | +636.9% |
| Mar 2017 | Mar 2017 | 1 | 1.2% | +67.0% | +633.1% |
| Apr 2017 | Apr 2017 | 1 | 0.0% | +105.2% | +621.3% |
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | 4.4% | +114.2% | +284.7% |
| Dec 2021 | Mar 2022 | 14 | 30.9% | +30.2% | +213.5% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 1.0% | +22.6% | +151.3% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 4.6% | +36.7% | +157.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 5.1% | N/A | +77.1% |
| Average | 11 | — | +30.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVAV below its 200-week moving average?
No. AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is currently 23.4% above its 200-week moving average of $160.16. It would need to fall to $160.16 to cross below the line.
What is AVAV's 200-week moving average price?
AeroVironment, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $160.16 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AVAV drops below its 200-week moving average?
AVAV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +30.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is AVAV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AVAV as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -8.7%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AVAV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.3 years, $100 invested in AVAV would have grown to $857, compared to $624 for the S&P 500. That's 12.4% annualized vs 10.5% for the index. AVAV has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20