AVAV

AeroVironment, Inc. Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →

NO
65.1% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 79.6% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $155.79
14-Week RSI 37

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) closed at $257.20 as of 2026-02-02, trading 65.1% above its 200-week moving average of $155.79. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 79.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 37, indicating neutral momentum.

Over the past 945 weeks of data, AVAV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AVAV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +30.8%.

With a market cap of $12.8 billion, AVAV is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -2.6%. The stock trades at 2.9x book value.

Share count has increased 13.3% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 18.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AVAV would have grown to $1114, compared to $663 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.1% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming AVAV as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Growth of $100: AVAV vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After AVAV Crosses Below the Line?

Across 22 historical episodes, buying AVAV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +29.1% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +11.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.0% vs +30.8% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AVAV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Historical Touches

AVAV has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +30.8% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Feb 2008Apr 2008810.8%+47.0%+1110.9%
Mar 2009May 2009823.9%+18.0%+1150.4%
Feb 2010Dec 20104619.1%+15.2%+965.0%
Jun 2011Jun 201110.3%-13.0%+850.8%
Aug 2011Aug 201128.9%-6.0%+883.2%
Sep 2011Sep 201112.5%-14.7%+855.1%
Feb 2012Oct 20138631.6%-20.9%+823.2%
Dec 2014Dec 201411.4%+7.0%+861.1%
Dec 2014Feb 201576.9%+9.4%+854.4%
Mar 2015Jun 2015145.2%+3.1%+908.2%
Jun 2015Jun 201510.7%+11.5%+872.0%
Jul 2015Dec 20152023.3%+4.8%+880.2%
Jan 2016Feb 201667.2%+2.3%+942.6%
Aug 2016Nov 20161016.2%+97.9%+935.8%
Dec 2016Mar 2017106.3%+109.3%+858.6%
Mar 2017Mar 201711.2%+67.0%+853.7%
Apr 2017Apr 201710.0%+105.2%+838.3%
Feb 2020Mar 202034.4%+114.2%+400.5%
Dec 2021Mar 20221430.9%+30.2%+307.8%
Jul 2022Jul 202211.0%+22.6%+226.9%
Oct 2022Oct 202224.6%+36.7%+234.7%
Mar 2025Apr 202515.1%N/A+130.4%
Average11+30.8%

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02