AVAV
AeroVironment, Inc. Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) closed at $257.20 as of 2026-02-02, trading 65.1% above its 200-week moving average of $155.79. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 79.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 37, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 945 weeks of data, AVAV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AVAV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +30.8%.
With a market cap of $12.8 billion, AVAV is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -2.6%. The stock trades at 2.9x book value.
Share count has increased 13.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 18.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AVAV would have grown to $1114, compared to $663 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.1% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming AVAV as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: AVAV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AVAV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying AVAV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +29.1% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +11.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.0% vs +30.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AVAV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AVAV has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +30.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2008 | Apr 2008 | 8 | 10.8% | +47.0% | +1110.9% |
| Mar 2009 | May 2009 | 8 | 23.9% | +18.0% | +1150.4% |
| Feb 2010 | Dec 2010 | 46 | 19.1% | +15.2% | +965.0% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 1 | 0.3% | -13.0% | +850.8% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 2 | 8.9% | -6.0% | +883.2% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 2.5% | -14.7% | +855.1% |
| Feb 2012 | Oct 2013 | 86 | 31.6% | -20.9% | +823.2% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 1.4% | +7.0% | +861.1% |
| Dec 2014 | Feb 2015 | 7 | 6.9% | +9.4% | +854.4% |
| Mar 2015 | Jun 2015 | 14 | 5.2% | +3.1% | +908.2% |
| Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 | 1 | 0.7% | +11.5% | +872.0% |
| Jul 2015 | Dec 2015 | 20 | 23.3% | +4.8% | +880.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 6 | 7.2% | +2.3% | +942.6% |
| Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 10 | 16.2% | +97.9% | +935.8% |
| Dec 2016 | Mar 2017 | 10 | 6.3% | +109.3% | +858.6% |
| Mar 2017 | Mar 2017 | 1 | 1.2% | +67.0% | +853.7% |
| Apr 2017 | Apr 2017 | 1 | 0.0% | +105.2% | +838.3% |
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | 4.4% | +114.2% | +400.5% |
| Dec 2021 | Mar 2022 | 14 | 30.9% | +30.2% | +307.8% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 1.0% | +22.6% | +226.9% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 4.6% | +36.7% | +234.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 5.1% | N/A | +130.4% |
| Average | 11 | — | +30.8% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02