AUB
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) closed at $39.03 as of 2026-09-18, trading 20.9% above its 200-week moving average of $32.29. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 23.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.0x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1671 weeks of data, AUB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AUB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.1%.
With a market cap of $5.6 billion, AUB is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 9.8%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 89.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 32.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AUB would have grown to $987, compared to $2886 for the S&P 500. AUB has returned 7.4% annualized vs 11.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 74.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AUB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AUB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying AUB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.0% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +19.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.5% vs +42.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AUB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AUB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AUB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $32.10 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $39.62 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $51.77 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $74.64 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $133.75 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | $0.92 | $0.94 | +2.4% |
| 2026-04-21 | $0.87 | $0.89 | +2.2% |
| 2026-01-22 | $0.86 | $0.97 | +12.9% |
| 2025-10-23 | $0.84 | $0.84 | -0.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AUB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AUB has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +15.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1994 | Sep 1994 | 1 | 2.8% | +17.1% | +1010.7% |
| Dec 1994 | Jan 1995 | 4 | 2.9% | +13.3% | +999.4% |
| Jan 1995 | Apr 1995 | 12 | 10.8% | +5.9% | +999.4% |
| Jun 1995 | Jun 1995 | 2 | 1.7% | +10.5% | +987.0% |
| Jul 1995 | Jul 1995 | 1 | 1.7% | +3.2% | +987.0% |
| Mar 1996 | Mar 1996 | 1 | 1.1% | +4.3% | +959.5% |
| Apr 1996 | May 1996 | 4 | 4.7% | +6.5% | +981.6% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 6 | 1.0% | +27.3% | +953.8% |
| Sep 1996 | Sep 1996 | 2 | 0.1% | +28.0% | +943.1% |
| Apr 1997 | Apr 1997 | 1 | 0.5% | +83.9% | +941.3% |
| Feb 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | 0.8% | -12.5% | +736.1% |
| Aug 1999 | Apr 2001 | 85 | 43.1% | -29.1% | +731.5% |
| Jul 2001 | Jul 2001 | 1 | 5.3% | +93.4% | +725.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 0.5% | +54.4% | +687.6% |
| Apr 2007 | Sep 2008 | 72 | 39.0% | -18.5% | +194.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 2.4% | -46.1% | +187.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 9 | 30.4% | -38.2% | +214.0% |
| Jan 2009 | Feb 2012 | 162 | 54.9% | -40.3% | +205.0% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 1 | 5.1% | +44.9% | +354.4% |
| Mar 2012 | Jun 2012 | 10 | 5.4% | +43.7% | +336.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 7.2% | +43.3% | +85.8% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 40 | 39.9% | +28.2% | +66.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 4.0% | -1.7% | +50.0% |
| Apr 2023 | Jul 2023 | 14 | 26.0% | +17.5% | +56.6% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 13 | 9.5% | +28.1% | +44.4% |
| Jun 2024 | Jun 2024 | 2 | 2.1% | +3.3% | +37.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 16 | 26.4% | +10.6% | +28.3% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 2.0% | +41.3% | +31.1% |
| Average | 17 | — | +15.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AUB below its 200-week moving average?
No. Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) is currently 20.9% above its 200-week moving average of $32.29. It would need to fall to $32.29 to cross below the line.
What is AUB's 200-week moving average price?
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation's 200-week moving average is $32.29 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AUB drops below its 200-week moving average?
AUB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is AUB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AUB as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Return on equity is 9.8%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AUB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.1 years, $100 invested in AUB would have grown to $987, compared to $2886 for the S&P 500. That's 7.4% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. AUB has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AUB pay a dividend?
Yes. Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 380.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18