AUB
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) closed at $42.43 as of 2026-07-31, trading 32.0% above its 200-week moving average of $32.14. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 31.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, AUB is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1664 weeks of data, AUB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AUB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.1%.
With a market cap of $6.0 billion, AUB is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 9.8%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
Share count has increased 89.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 31.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AUB would have grown to $1064, compared to $2823 for the S&P 500. AUB has returned 7.7% annualized vs 11.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 74.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AUB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AUB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying AUB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.0% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +19.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.5% vs +42.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AUB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AUB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AUB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $34.41 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $36.18 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $38.15 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $40.34 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $42.79 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AUB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AUB has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +15.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1994 | Sep 1994 | 1 | 2.8% | +17.1% | +1096.9% |
| Dec 1994 | Jan 1995 | 4 | 2.9% | +13.3% | +1084.7% |
| Jan 1995 | Apr 1995 | 12 | 10.8% | +5.9% | +1084.7% |
| Jun 1995 | Jun 1995 | 2 | 1.7% | +10.5% | +1071.4% |
| Jul 1995 | Jul 1995 | 1 | 1.7% | +3.2% | +1071.4% |
| Mar 1996 | Mar 1996 | 1 | 1.1% | +4.3% | +1041.8% |
| Apr 1996 | May 1996 | 4 | 4.7% | +6.5% | +1065.6% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 6 | 1.0% | +27.3% | +1035.6% |
| Sep 1996 | Sep 1996 | 2 | 0.1% | +28.0% | +1024.1% |
| Apr 1997 | Apr 1997 | 1 | 0.5% | +83.9% | +1022.1% |
| Feb 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | 0.8% | -12.5% | +801.0% |
| Aug 1999 | Apr 2001 | 85 | 43.1% | -29.1% | +796.0% |
| Jul 2001 | Jul 2001 | 1 | 5.3% | +93.4% | +790.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 0.5% | +54.4% | +748.8% |
| Apr 2007 | Sep 2008 | 72 | 39.0% | -18.5% | +216.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 2.4% | -46.1% | +209.2% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 9 | 30.4% | -38.2% | +238.3% |
| Jan 2009 | Feb 2012 | 162 | 54.9% | -40.3% | +228.7% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 1 | 5.1% | +44.9% | +389.7% |
| Mar 2012 | Jun 2012 | 10 | 5.4% | +43.7% | +370.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 7.2% | +43.3% | +100.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 40 | 39.9% | +28.2% | +79.5% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 4.0% | -1.7% | +61.6% |
| Apr 2023 | Jul 2023 | 14 | 26.0% | +17.5% | +68.8% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 13 | 9.5% | +28.1% | +55.7% |
| Jun 2024 | Jun 2024 | 2 | 2.1% | +3.3% | +48.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 16 | 26.4% | +10.6% | +38.2% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 2.0% | +41.3% | +41.3% |
| Average | 17 | — | +15.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AUB below its 200-week moving average?
No. Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) is currently 32.0% above its 200-week moving average of $32.14. It would need to fall to $32.14 to cross below the line.
What is AUB's 200-week moving average price?
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation's 200-week moving average is $32.14 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AUB drops below its 200-week moving average?
AUB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is AUB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AUB as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Return on equity is 9.8%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AUB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.9 years, $100 invested in AUB would have grown to $1064, compared to $2823 for the S&P 500. That's 7.7% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. AUB has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AUB pay a dividend?
Yes. Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 350.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31